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Momma Said There'd Be Days Like This

March 14, 2023

People love the idea of entering options trades with a high probability of success. It’s easy to be seduced by the prospect of winning on 60, 70, or even 80 percent of our trades.

It doesn’t take much imagination to enjoy visions of swimming in all the cash we’d surely be earning with such a strategy. And why not? With that kind of win rate, we’ll often go on runs where we win on multiple trades in a row.

Talk about a confidence builder!

Of course, there is no free lunch on Wall Street. And in strategies with a high probability of success, there is a dark underside that people conveniently like to ignore.

This type of discussion quickly makes us unpopular at cocktail parties. So we avoid it. Many know, but most are unwilling to talk about it.

The trading action in...

Swing Trader Pro: Afternoon Briefing (03-14-2023)

March 14, 2023

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The $SPX rallied right to its 200-moving average, and it was rejected.

We bounced in the morning due to CPI, which was bullish for the market. Unfortunately the market is worried about other things.

Banks are really stinking up the joint.

Pictures of Monkeys Rally 15%

March 14, 2023

They say to buy when there's blood in the streets.

Does this count?

Hardly.

Many indexes around the world are just a few basis points from new highs. Most stocks in America have been rallying for 9 months.

But sure, there's a little blood, with some of these small regional banks disappearing. But depositors are keeping their money, so the only cost is a few people lost their jobs.

Good. Unemployment is way too low anyway.

Insiders Shore Up Regional Bank Shares

March 14, 2023

The regional banking panic that began last week has caused a drastic repricing of financial stocks. 

As selling pressure accelerates for a variety of vulnerable banks, executives are coming out and buying shares in an effort to shore up the volatility and put a vote of confidence in their stock.

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Going for Gold

March 14, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Strength begets strength.

Buyers taking control of a market heading into the weekend exude confidence. That describes gold bulls last Friday as they drove prices higher into the close.

To no surprise, Gold kicked off the new week gapping higher and rallying more than 2.5%. We call this bullish follow-through. 

So what’s next for precious metals?

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The Minor Leaguers (03-13-2023)

March 13, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

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Follow the Flow (03-13-2023)

March 13, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

All Star Charts Gold Rush

Going for Gold

March 13, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Strength begets strength.

Buyers taking control of a market heading into the weekend exude confidence. That describes gold bulls last Friday as they drove prices higher into the close.

To no surprise, Gold kicked off the new week gapping higher and rallying more than 2.5%. We call this bullish follow-through. 

So what’s next for precious metals?

Most likely… More strength!

Check out the daily chart of Gold, highlighting last Friday’s candle in addition to that of the Friday, Nov. 4th session:

 

Both these candlestick formations are a visual representation of buyers’ willingness to take home additional risk over the weekend.

A sustained rally into an overwhelming amount of supply marked by the 2011 highs followed the bullish candle from Nov. 4th. 

Based on today’s action, Gold appears to be kicking off another leg higher… In fact, short-term momentum for Gold – measured by the short-term rate of change, has not been this high in almost three years. 

 

Here’s a look at Gold futures with the 2-day ROC, showing the highest reading since early 2020. This...

The Chart Report: Private Access

The Buzz 🐝 Week 2

March 13, 2023

Welcome to The Buzz! 

Our mission at The Chart Report is to highlight ideas from the best traders and technicians on social media. 

Now, we’re taking this concept one step further and tapping into the madness of the crowd. 

That’s why we created The Buzz! 

Our mission at The Buzz is simple: to identify and profit from the most-talked-about stocks on the market today. 

But isn’t the crowd always wrong? 

The grandfather of contrarian investing, Humphrey B. Neil once said; 

“The public is often right during the trends, but wrong at both ends.” 

We agree with Humphrey, which is why we’ll be focusing on catching the meat of these trends, with both long and short ideas. 

The Buzz uses proprietary social media data from our partners at Likefolio. 

Every week, we compile a list of stocks that are experiencing the most momentum in terms of investor interest. Let’s take a look at which stocks are buzzing this week!

 

This table shows the rate...

If US Dollar Index below 105, Buy Stocks!

March 13, 2023

Historically they’re all usually just making a big deal about things that are not a big deal.

It's their job to make noise. And in some cases, it's not even their job, humans just like to overreact and make a lot of noise.

As investors, it's our job to ignore.

We don't care about their fed policies. We're not interested in arguing about wars. I don't care who the president is. And a "bank crisis" is laughable these days, compared to what I had a front row seat to back in 2008.

They make noise. We ignore. It's that simple.

Late last week when people were panicking, I was right here telling you we wanted to buy stocks.

Why?

Because in bull markets, it pays well to own stocks.

Besides, the Dollar was falling apart. So if stocks were about to collapse and this was 1929 all over again (lol btw), then the...

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The Hall of Famers (03-10-2023)

March 11, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down 5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 

Then,...