The thing about options is that participants in these markets are very good at pricing in expected moves. You'd be amazed at how often the options market nails the expected move in an instrument before it happens.

Like point spreads in sports betting, it's amazing how often they nail it.

But when options are mispriced, meaning traders are not expecting something -- that's where big wins can happen for those who position accordingly.

We think one such opportunity is presenting itself in the consumer staples corner of the world. And if we get right, we might have a 20-bagger on our hands.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The Nasdaq just went out last week at new 7-month highs.

Growth stocks are back.

But why?

Interest Rates are falling at a record pace.

And when you look at the intermarket relationships, it makes a lot of sense:

Mario Gabelli's GAMCO Investors is back on our list.

GAMCO filed a 13D revealing an increase in ownership in Sinclair Broadcast Group $SBGI from 8.32% to 9.34%.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was a nice reversal Friday after the early morning drop.

We still need to get back above 400 on $SPY.

US interest rates have fallen to their lowest levels since Q3 last year.

And with falling rates has come a consistent bid into Technology and growth all year so far.

That has driven the Nasdaq100 to its highest weekly close in 7 months:

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 

Then...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I can’t think of a better time to review the major commodity indexes. 

The rising rate environment is reversing, and it’s taking commodities with it.

Let’s dive in and see what’s going on in the space! We also need to check in with a key intermarket ratio, revealing where we want to position ourselves in the coming months and quarters.

Check out the triple-pane chart of the Bloomberg Commodity Index $BCOM, the CRB Index, and our equal-weight index comprised of 33 individual contracts (EW33):

The EW33 remains resilient despite the BCOM and the energy-heavy CRB recently posting fresh 52-week lows. Its buoyancy speaks to lingering strength in various contracts such as orange juice, cocoa, sugar, live cattle, precious metals, copper, and steel.

But the environment is changing as yields begin to turn lower. I find it hard to imagine that commodities – at the index level – will continue to trend higher...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Wishing all the best of luck to the traders in the live trading room, I took an early leave this Friday.

$VXX was on our side, and that was a great morning!

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Monday night we held our March Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each

Let’s get right into it!

We're making a tactical bearish bet on a transportation stock that appears to be riding the rails south to lower prices.

It's got earnings coming up in late April, so we'll be buying an express ticket on a short-term play to capture a move.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

With Financials continuing to fall apart, we're focused on the assets that are making new highs - Bitcoin and Gold being 2 of them.

I was on Fox Business yesterday talking about the importance of the 2007 highs in the Financials Index.

Here's a fun behind the scenes look.

The most significant insider transaction on today's list comes in a Form 4 from Carl Icahn.

Icahn bought $30 million worth of Southwest Gas Holdings $SWX, increasing his ownership stake from 12.64% to 14.44%.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

I like to say this market is not for the faint of heart.

This morning we're trading below the 200-day moving average on $SPY.

Unless we recover 392.44 we can head back down to 385.

I mean, do I really know my risk?

Stocks and Futures traders like to talk about how they use stop-loss orders to define their risks, and that’s smart.

A lifetime ago I managed a small, independent hedge fund that traded commodities with a trend-following strategy. This strategy entered positions that I’d attempt to hold for weeks or months (if they were working).

Every position I had on had a resting stop-loss order working in the market, giving me comfort that I knew the most I could lose if I was wrong.

All that comfort I was enjoying changed one day after a trip to my clearing firm’s office in downtown Chicago.

I sat down with one of the firm’s risk managers for a simple “get-to-know-you” chat. He was curious about my...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This market can't get its act together.

It started off strong, then it faltered.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Federal Reserve handed down a 25-basis-point rate increase on Wednesday.

And Fed Chair Jerome Powell implied an impending pause in the hiking cycle.

You know what this means...

It’s time to buy the four "Bs" – Bonds, Bitcoin, Big-Tech, and Bullion.

JC and Strazza talked about it on Pardon the Price Action earlier this week.

Today, I’ll highlight bonds with a couple key levels to trade against as we add these assets to our portfolios.

First up is the 7-10 Year US Treasury ETF $IEF:

It’s not there yet. But if and when IEF reclaims the critical shelf of former lows at approximately 100, we’re long!

The next potential resistance level hangs overhead at last year’s August pivot high of 105.75. This is a logical level to take profits or “feed the ducks.” 

But these trades are more about adding bonds back into the mix after last...