Yesterday's daily move of +9.5% for the S&P 500 was its third-best day going all the way back to the 1950s.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
The green & red lines in the bottom panel is the daily percentage change.
The table showcases the forward returns for the top 20 best days for the S&P 500.
The Takeaway: If you have been following my daily notes this week, you would have seen on Monday that I noted that a massive back-to-back price drop could indicate that we had reached a market bottom. On Tuesday, I mentioned that a huge spike in volatility might present an opportunity to buy when others are feeling fearful. On Wednesday morning, I pointed out that washed-out levels of market breadth could signal the end of the downward trend.
And guess what? The market took off, gaining +9.5% in just one day, the third-best day going all the way back to the start of the S&P 500.
We would call this a momentum thrust… The data table shows that on the days with the largest daily percentage changes, the market is, on average, up 28.9% one year later, and is higher 94% of the time.
Could this signal the start of the more important breadth thrusts? Possibly
In fact, we saw our first breadth thrust of 2025—the NYSE Up Volume Thrust. While this is the shortest time frame for a thrust that I analyze, it still indicates that the bulls are present and ready to put in some effort.
The question now is: How much follow-through do the bulls have?
It has been some time since I've added data points to the bullish bucket, but they are beginning to trickle in. While I wouldn't say I'm extremely bullish, as I recognize that there are still many challenges ahead, this is a great start for the bulls.
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
PSS: Steve is going LIVE again todayat 9.45am ET to discuss the current action.
He will cover what’s working, what’s not, and what comes next. You’ll see live charts, key price levels, and exactly how he is thinking about new opportunities as this market shakes out.
If you find my content valuable, I would greatly appreciate it if you could share it with your friends, family, and colleagues. Your help in spreading the word is invaluable in supporting our work. Thank you to all of you who share!
