Commodities With a Pulse🛢️

Today's number is... 13.44%

13.44% is the annualized return of the S&P GSCI Commodity Index when the 10-day moving average of its 40-day percent change is above the 120-day 

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:  

• The candlesticks in the top panel show the S&P GSCI Commodity Index price.
• The middle panel plots the 40-day percent change with 10-day (blue) and 120-day (orange) moving averages.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the spread between those two MAs.
• Grey shading highlights periods when the 10-day average is above the 120-day.

The Takeaway: This tactical model doesn’t just track price.

It tracks the trend in momentum.

By smoothing the 40-day rate of change in the index, it identifies when strength is building or fading. 

When the 10-day average is above the 120-day, the model turns bullish. When it slips below, the model turns bearish.

When the momentum trend is positive, the S&P GSCI Commodity Index delivers an annualized return of 13.44%.

When the trend is negative — with the 10-day below the 120-day — the annualized return collapses to just 0.04%.

Buy-and-hold splits the difference at 6.65%, but with a far rougher ride.

This simple overlay captures nearly all of the return and avoids the deepest losses.

Technically, this is a trend-of-momentum overlay. It filters for conditions where price isn’t just rising — it’s accelerating. 

Momentum pays — but only when it’s trending. 

Commodities aren’t breaking out.

But momentum is turning up.

If this trend continues, it could start pulling capital back into Energy, Materials, and other real asset plays. 

That’s when the rotation gets real.

So what now?

Let me know! 

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts

The commodity bull market is real — and Gold Rush is how we’re playing it. Each week, Jason Perz and Sam Gatlin break down the action in gold, copper, silver, and the miners, with live alerts when it’s time to act. If you’re ready to ride this trend, now’s the time to jump in. 

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