Quiet Moves, Loud Message 🔇

Today's number is... 21

That’s 21 straight sessions the S&P 500 has gone without a ±1% daily move — the longest stretch of calm in 2025.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The top panel shows the S&P 500 index as a black daily close line.
• The bottom panel plots streaks of consecutive days without a ±1% move as black spikes.

The Takeaway: Low volatility doesn’t mean low strength.

In bull markets, it’s a feature — not a bug.

This 21-day streak without a ±1% move is the longest of the year. It’s a textbook calm grind higher — and bulls love that.

The best years of the last decade shared this trait. In 2017, the S&P 500 rose 19.4% — and just 8 of the 251 trading days saw a ±1% move.

In 2021 (+26%), 2019 (+28%), and 2024 (+23%), the market also delivered strong returns while volatility stayed subdued.

Right now, the tape is calm, steady, and trending. 

That’s not fear. 

That’s control.

Volatility spikes usually show up when the market’s off balance, not when participation is broad and trends keep moving higher.

Calm like this isn’t a warning — it’s often a sign of healthy, orderly demand.

So the real question is: Will this quiet strength keep fueling the rally — or will something finally break the silence?

Let me know! 

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts

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