Quiet. Strong. Bullish. ✅

Today's number is... 4

That’s how many market regimes this model tracks — and right now we’re sitting in the most bullish one.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The top panel plots the S&P 500 in black, overlaid with background shading that reflects one of four market regimes:
  • Green = Quiet & Strong
  • Light Green = Noisy & Strong
  • Orange = Quiet & Weak
  • Red = Noisy & Weak
• The middle panel tracks streaks of calm or noisy sessions based on daily S&P 500 moves:
  • Green bars = consecutive days with <1% moves (quiet)
  • Red bars = consecutive days with >1% moves (noisy)
• The bottom panel tracks internal strength using NYSE + NASDAQ new highs vs. new lows:
  • Olive green bars = net new highs (strong)
  • Dark red bars = net new lows (weak)

The Takeaway: Shoutout to Willie Delwiche, who first introduced me to this framework years ago — and it’s held up through every cycle since.

This model defines four possible market states — and only one of them consistently shows up during strong, persistent bull runs: Quiet & Strong.

That’s exactly where we are now

Volatility is low. Participation is broad. 

We’ve had 24 straight sessions without a ±1% move, and 30 consecutive days where new highs outnumber new lows.

That’s not random calm. That’s structural strength. 

It tells us investors aren’t panicking — they’re positioning. 

The trend is being confirmed from the inside out.

These conditions aren’t where tops form. They’re where upside accelerates.

It’s when traders press — and shorts get steamrolled.

If that regime flips to Noisy & Weak, it’s a different game.

But while we’re here? The path of least resistance is higher.

Let me know! 

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts

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