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Chart of the Day: That Ether....

June 8, 2022

I lived on 55th Street on the East side of Manhattan for a while.

To get some exercise I would often run along the East River and many times I'd run across the 59th Street Bridge over to Queens Blvd, and back.

It wasn't a long run, but it got me going and would get me away from my screens for a bit.

Exercise was part of my "support" system during some of those rougher years.

On the way out to Queens you go over Roosevelt Island (which is a really weird place btw). And then you have Queensbridge over to your left directly north of the 59th St. Bridge.

For those unfamiliar, Queensbridge is the largest housing project in North America.

It's where Nas is from, arguably the greatest rapper of all time. I personally don't make that argument, but I can see how you could (he's in my top 5).

There's a famous diss track that Nas titled "Ether".

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The Yen Provides the Base

June 7, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Japanese yen continues to slide.

In early April, we highlighted the multi-year base in the USD/JPY cross. We were anticipating a significant breakout based on the broad weakness in the yen.

Even gold, one of the worst performing assets, looked strong denominated in yen.

We went so far as to title the post Anything in Yen.

Funny or not, it was true.

Not long after the post, we got the breakout we expected. And, two months later, the USD/JPY is kicking off its next leg higher, printing fresh 20-year highs.

Let's take it a step further and outline some trade setups in other currencies denominated in yen.

Remember, everything and anything seems to work priced in yen these days.

First, a quick revisit of the USD/JPY chart we shared in April. Here’s the updated version:

After retesting its recent breakout level near 126, the USD/JPY pair has...

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The Minor Leaguers (06-06-2022)

June 6, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We’ve had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn’t have to be a Russell component -- it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity...

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Follow the Flow (06-06-2022)

June 6, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in...

12 Months of No Progress

June 6, 2022

With everyone so certain about the upcoming recession, even Cardi B, why don't we take a step back and look at what the actual prices of stocks are doing.

You can see here that the Dow Jones Industrials and Dow Jones Transports have done absolutely nothing for over a year.

For perspective, stocks first peaked in January of 2018, then went nowhere for 3 years, and finally broke out:

June Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways

June 6, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our June Monthly Strategy Session last Thursday night. Premium Members can click here to access the recording and the chartbook.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.

This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

Chart of the Day: "Inflation Hedge"

June 6, 2022

The troubles don't stop coming for investors who were deceived into believing that gold was a hedge against inflation.

Gold is at the same price it was 2 years ago.

Heck, Gold is still at the same price it was 11 years ago.

Meanwhile, Silver is down 40% from that same point.

Inflation hedge?

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Look how gold and silver are doing relative to actual inflation hedges:

Chart of the Day: How To Avoid Recession

June 4, 2022

A lot of the worst investors I know and people who I regularly like to bet against are preparing for a recession.

Are you?

I've always been in the camp that recessions are the economic implications of changes in asset prices.

And that's because, well, it's just fact. Price leads. The "economy" follows....

So for me, I'd rather just focus on price then. Why would I waste time on the lagging data when we can spend our time on the forward looking data?

And so here we are.

What's it going to take for stock prices (outside of energy) to stop falling?

I think it's more of what we've seen over the past few weeks: A weaker Dollar.

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First High-Yield Bonds, Now Dr. Copper

June 3, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Momentum thrusts abound.

The other day on Twitter Spaces, JC made the point that we hadn’t seen many bullish thrusts this year. He was right. There have been a handful of obscure ones, but nothing really stands out. Until now…

Last week, the High-Yield Bond ETF $HYG registered its largest single-day rate of change since spring 2020.

Not bearish, right?

Then, yesterday, copper futures followed this up by rallying over 5% and booking their largest daily gain in almost a decade.

Also, not bearish.

These types of strong momentum thrusts tend to kick off new uptrends.

We just covered the action in HYG and highlighted the major bottoms that formed under similar momentum conditions.

Today, we’re going to review yesterday’s thrust in Dr. Copper and discuss what a sustained rally from here could mean for risk assets.

Let’s dive in!

Here’s a chart of copper futures with a one-day rate of change in the lower pane: 

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The Hall of Famers (06-03-2022)

June 3, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it:

  • We filtered out any stocks that are below their May 10, 2021, high,...