From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Back in January, the big story was the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note printing new multi-year highs.
At the time, other benchmark yields worldwide were also resolving higher, completing large bases.
This was confirming evidence that added to our conviction US yields were headed higher and that we were in the early stages of a rising rate environment.
The confirmation from global yields proved valuable information.
Almost six months later, the US benchmark is just below 3.00%. As it pauses below a critical level, we again turn to overseas rates to get a read on the potential near-term direction of the 10-year yield.
And just like earlier in the year, they’re pointing higher.
Let’s take a look.
Here’s a chart of European 10-year yields: European rates are catching higher.
The yields on 10-year government bonds from France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, and...
The bears are getting creative with their theories.
You notice?
And there are a lot of bears out there. More than we've seen in a long, long time depending on how exactly you're counting them.
So the big question is whether we've seen A bottom or if we've seen THE bottom.
And the truth is no one knows until after the fact.
All we can do is continue to collect the data as it comes in and make the best decisions with incomplete information.
The first thing that needs to happen before stocks can go up, is that they need to stop going down.
That's just math.
And what's interesting is that with lower lows in the price of most major U.S. Indexes a couple of weeks ago, fewer stocks were actually able to make new lows....
Mea Culpa --- I'm letting this post stand because it offers two good lessons for traders:
1. The risk management laid out below is how I manage long calls heading into expiration. So anyone holding a similar position will benefit from this or a similar risk management plan.
2. It offers a lesson on keeping good records. I messed up. For ASO subscribers, we're actually in the September calls, NOT JUNE CALLS. We have plenty of time until our position expires and therefore we actually don't need to do anything here yet but enjoy our #FreeRide. The confusion for me is that I also have June calls on in my personal portfolio and I did not take careful notes in my personal spreadsheet. And when reviewing, I accidentally confused these June calls as part of the position we put on for ASO. So, yes, I personally will be exiting my June calls soon (as laid out below). But for those of you who followed me into our September calls trade, we've got time.
Sorry about the confusion.
Hello everyone! It's the beginning of the month and during this time, I always review any open...
When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.
Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.
We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.
The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too.
We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics.
Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.
We play with the cards we are dealt. There is nothing else we can do. We cannot employ willpower to create market conditions into being the way we'd prefer them to be. They are what they are, it is what it is. So we work with what we've got.
And what we've got right now are a bunch of badly beaten up stocks. Many still off 60%+ from their recent highs.
Dumpster diving isn't my favorite way to find new ideas to trade. But my man Strazza enjoys the exercise from time to time and recently, he's uncovered some notable insider buying and unusual options activity in some former highflyers, most notably Zoom $ZM.
But first, let's survey the damage. This probably isn't new to many of you, but look how far ZM has fallen from its recent perch atop Momentum Mountain:
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar is on the ropes as global currencies bounce back.
After failing to hold its breakout earlier in the month, the USD looks vulnerable against a growing number of currencies.
The pound and euro are catching higher. The Swiss franc is rebounding off its recent lows. And the commodity-centric Australian and Canadian dollars remain resilient.
We can add the Mexican peso to this list, as the USD/MXN cross broke down to fresh 52-week lows yesterday. This breakdown supports the near-term bearish argument for the dollar.
And it also offers a great trade setup.
Let’s take a look.
Here’s a chart of the USD/MXN pair:
While the Mexican peso has chopped sideways since late 2020, we believe the trend is shifting to the downside.
Last week, prices punctured the range lows as the USD/MXN hit...
These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Thursday June 2nd @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
The magazine cover on the left, describing how Bitcoin was "Storming Wall Street" came just a few weeks before Bitcoin put in a historic top in late 2017. Immediately after this cover story, Bitcoin went on to have one of the most epic crashes of all time.
Investors got wiped out right after the one on the left.
And now here we are after Bitcoin got cut in half, and many of the altcoins are down 70-80% if not more.
Welcome back to our latest Under the Hood column, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended May 27, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our Minor Leaguers column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.