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The worst stocks on earth are near old support

February 28, 2022

It's hard to ignore the fact that some of the worst stocks on the planet are near old support levels.

One group that stands out for sure are the Marijuana stocks. We've seen a ton of activity from C-suite executives buying their own company's stocks recently. And not just exercising options, but going out in the open market and buying the stock just like you or I would.

Look at the Alternative Harvest Index Fund all the way down to those former lows from early 2020:

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[Premium] Details For March 2022 Monthly Strategy Session

February 26, 2022

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Tuesday March 1st @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Tuesday evening:

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These Trends Deserve a Breather

February 25, 2022

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley    

Commodities have been on a tear to start the year.

The CRB Index is up almost 16% year to ate, while our equal-weight commodity index is up 9.5%.

But, with such explosive moves over the past few months, we think it might be time for some corrective action.

Our commodity indexes and a handful of individual contracts are now testing potential resistance levels.

Though we still think this bull market has plenty left in the tank, it’s starting to look like commodities are due for a break over the short term.

Let’s discuss some of these charts now.

First up is the CRB Index:

The benchmark commodity index is running into an area of former support at the 2012 and 2014 lows, coinciding with a key Fibonacci retracement level measured from the 2011 peak to the 2020 lows.

The CRB Index has been on a tear, posting 10 straight weeks of higher closes....

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Better Opportunities Abroad

February 25, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

We've been joking internally that the new highs list is a lot longer when you include ADRs.

As US stocks come under increasing pressure and the rotation into value becomes more pronounced, international stocks are garnering some well-deserved attention.

We recently wrote about some of our favorite regions around the world and discussed bullish setups in a handful of international country ETFs, with a heavy tilt toward value.

We also have a bi-weekly scan where we focus exclusively on the largest ADRs, which are just foreign companies listed on US exchanges. It's called the International Hall of Famers, and you can check it out here.

The only problem with it is that a lot of the cyclical stocks that are showing leadership have smaller market capitalizations, and our universe is focused only on large caps.

As such, we thought we'd run a scan to identify some of the strongest international stocks between a market cap of $1B and $35B.

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The Hall of Famers (02-25-2022)

February 25, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that, which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

And here’s how we arrived at it:

  • We filtered out any stocks that are below their May 10th 2021 high, which is when new 52-week highs peaked...
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Will Bonds Dig In?

February 25, 2022

US Treasuries are off to their worst start in more than a decade as rates rise across the curve. 

The US Aggregate Bond ETF $AGG is down more than 4% year to date. Treasuries can’t manage to catch a bid. And High-Yield Bonds $HYG have fallen off a cliff.

But this could all change quickly. Especially if stocks continue to sell off. 

Money has to go somewhere as it flows out of equities. And with many bonds testing critical levels, it would make sense to see prices mean revert, at least in the near term.

Let’s take a trip around the bond market and discuss some of the key levels on our radar.

First up is the long duration Treasury Bond ETF $TLT:

After dropping 5.4% in the last three months, TLT has paused at a logical area of former support around 135. This the same level price rebounded from late 2019 and early 2021.

The last time TLT bounced off these levels was when many risk assets peaked back in May of last year. We’re watching to see if we get a similar reaction from markets this time around.

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[Podcast] A Conversation with Financial Advisor Stephen Weitzel, Managing Partner at Reveille Wealth Management

February 25, 2022

On today's episode I sit down with Financial Advisor Stephen Weitzel. Stephen and I have known each other for many years. We're both big fans of Technical Analysis, good food and college football. So this was a lot of fun!

Stephen walks us through his journey of first becoming a Financial Advisor, how helpful Technical Analysis has been for his practice and the journey towards $1 Billion in assets.

I've had a front row seat to Stephen's growth, both as a business owner and as a Technician. It's been really cool to see and I'm going to keep rooting for him and his team.

I always like to get different perspectives on the podcast, and I think this conversation is a great compliment to a lot of the other episodes we've done over the years.

Make sure to follow Stephen Weitzel on Twitter @stephenweitzel and check out Stephen's firm Reveille Wealth Management.

Enjoy!

This Low Is Different From the Last

February 24, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

How about that volatility!?

I don't know about the rest of you, but days like these make me grateful that I get to do this for a living.

The Nasdaq 100 $QQQ opened the day down over 3% and closed up over 3%. The last time that happened was November of 2008.

How's that for excitement?

Intraday reversals and wide ranges are normal during periods when volatility grips the market the way it has so far this year.

But today was different than the other tumultuous sessions we've encountered in recent months. We're finally seeing some strong evidence of a bottom.

Let's talk about it.

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The Short Report (02-24-2022)

February 24, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

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Happy 1-Year Anniversary Bear Market

February 24, 2022

This month marks the one year anniversary of the top in stocks.

And more specifically, I mean the top in the internals of the U.S. Stock Market. Remember, that's the best things were, and it's been a painful deterioration ever since, particularly for most U.S. Index Fund investors, growth investors and most individual U.S. stock pickers.

The new highs list these days is loaded up with ADRs, Metals stocks, Staples and Energy. Most of the other stocks have been struggling. Not all of them are down, but many are sideways at best.

This chart really tells the story of what's been going on. We discussed it on Tuesday night's call:

February Conference Call: 5 Key Takeaways

February 23, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our February Mid-Month Conference Call on Tuesday. ASC Premium Members can click here to review the recording and the slide deck.

In this post, we’ll summarize the call by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!