The Nasdaq is ripping to new all-time highs. NVIDIA’s market cap is surpassing the three-trillion-dollar mark. And US T-bonds are registering another buy signal.
But the market’s still a mess.
Just look at yesterday’s intraday reversal—a bullish reaction to inflation data in the morning, followed by a bearish reaction to the FOMC meeting in the afternoon. Investors are still trying to make sense of the mid-week hoopla.
Friday’s close (the most important data point of the week) will reveal critical information regarding market conviction heading into the weekend.
Meanwhile, you can track high-yield bonds for risk-on confirmation.
Check out the HY Bond ETF $HYG overlaid with the high beta-versus-low volatility ratio (using the $SPHB and $SPLV ETFs):
These two charts are carbon copies over the trailing 52 weeks because HYG is a risk asset...
It's not a bad thing for America, Americans or the American Stock Market that the largest companies in the country are going up in price.
The best players are scoring a lot of points.
That's perfectly normal.
In fact, if you go back and study every bull market over the past 100 years, you'll notice that Technology is a leader in almost every single one of them.
Tech stocks doing well, and outperforming other sectors, is just a classic characteristic of a bull market.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
During our monthly calls, we focus on long-term charts in an effort to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and examine the markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended June 7, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual...
In what has become pretty well documented over the past two years or so, our Uncle Warren Buffett has been accumulating a very large position in Occidental Petroleum $OXY. He's been making his buys in the neighborhood of $55-60 per share. Like clockwork, every time $OXY has traded below $60 per share, we see new Form-4 filings disclosing another large purchase by Berkshire Hathaway.
We at All Star Charts were a little ahead of the crowd on this trade, having sold puts numerous times in $OXY over the past two years at these levels to take advantage of elevated options premiums and the "Buffett Support Zone."
But it is no longer a secret. And there are many more people than us who are aware of this trade -- which, to me, makes it vulnerable.
If Buffet's buying can no longer support the stock price, or if/when he decides he's got enough and stops his accumulating, we might experience a narrative shift that could result in a swift repricing of this stock to lower prices. This makes selling naked puts a riskier proposition. And right now, even worse, the premiums in $OXY puts are pretty...