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Long Elon and Long Tesla

June 14, 2024

In 2019 Tesla was worth a tiny $30 Billion.

By 2021 Tesla was approaching a market cap of $1.3 Trillion.

The job of a CEO is to increase shareholder value.

Period.

No CEO in history made shareholders more money faster than Elon Musk.

It's just math.

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HY Bonds Will Confirm the Tech Rally

June 13, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Nasdaq is ripping to new all-time highs. NVIDIA’s market cap is surpassing the three-trillion-dollar mark. And US T-bonds are registering another buy signal. 

But the market’s still a mess. 

Just look at yesterday’s intraday reversal—a bullish reaction to inflation data in the morning, followed by a bearish reaction to the FOMC meeting in the afternoon. Investors are still trying to make sense of the mid-week hoopla.

Friday’s close (the most important data point of the week) will reveal critical information regarding market conviction heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile, you can track high-yield bonds for risk-on confirmation.

Check out the HY Bond ETF $HYG overlaid with the high beta-versus-low volatility ratio (using the $SPHB and $SPLV ETFs):

These two charts are carbon copies over the trailing 52 weeks because HYG is a risk asset...

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The Short Report (06-12-2024)

June 12, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

The $3 Trillion Club Welcomes You

June 12, 2024

It's not a bad thing for America, Americans or the American Stock Market that the largest companies in the country are going up in price.

The best players are scoring a lot of points.

That's perfectly normal.

In fact, if you go back and study every bull market over the past 100 years, you'll notice that Technology is a leader in almost every single one of them.

Tech stocks doing well, and outperforming other sectors, is just a classic characteristic of a bull market.

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Up or Down Dollar? Short the Euro Instead

June 11, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Check out these currency headlines:

The Buck Strikes Back… 

Investors Sideline a Defiant Dollar… 

Dollar Down? The 10-Year Says “Yes!”... 

The USD Rally Proves Sticky… 

Weighing a Potential Dollar Breakdown…

Well, which is it? Is the dollar going up… or down?

I have no idea. 

But given the market's current shape, your best forex bets are to short the euro and buy the yen…

If that sounds familiar, I shared a similar perspective during last month’s Fed Day.

A month and a half later, the euro is trading at...

June Strategy Session: 3 Key Takeaways

June 10, 2024

Last week, we held our June Monthly Strategy Session. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

During our monthly calls, we focus on long-term charts in an effort to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.

This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and examine the markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

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Under the Hood (06-10-2024)

June 10, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended June 7, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Gold Passes the Stress Test

June 10, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals bulls are waking up following last week’s selling pressure.

Copper, silver, platinum: It didn’t matter. Base and precious metals took a hit.

It was ugly but not a complete disaster.

Call me a gold bug if you like (I won’t take offense), but don’t overlook the key takeaway from last week’s session: gold’s resilience.

[Options] A New Twist On Our Uncle Warren Trade

June 10, 2024

In what has become pretty well documented over the past two years or so, our Uncle Warren Buffett has been accumulating a very large position in Occidental Petroleum $OXY. He's been making his buys in the neighborhood of $55-60 per share. Like clockwork, every time $OXY has traded below $60 per share, we see new Form-4 filings disclosing another large purchase by Berkshire Hathaway.

We at All Star Charts were a little ahead of the crowd on this trade, having sold puts numerous times in $OXY over the past two years at these levels to take advantage of elevated options premiums and the "Buffett Support Zone."

But it is no longer a secret. And there are many more people than us who are aware of this trade -- which, to me, makes it vulnerable.

If Buffet's buying can no longer support the stock price, or if/when he decides he's got enough and stops his accumulating, we might experience a narrative shift that could result in a swift repricing of this stock to lower prices. This makes selling naked puts a riskier proposition. And right now, even worse, the premiums in $OXY puts are pretty...

Observations from Urgent Care

June 8, 2024

My son is perfectly fine.

But his face was bubbling up earlier this week after eating cashews.

I feel bad for him because cashews are delicious.

The Dr. gave him some Benadryl and some other stuff and he was just fine within the hour.

But we were hanging out at the urgent care for a while and I couldn't help myself but look around and notice all the nurse tchotchkes.

It was quite obvious that everything had a Mckesson label on it. There was Mckesson everywhere!

So it shouldn't be a surprise that the chart looks like this: