Macke's Retail Roundup Articles

Abercrombie didn't have to be perfect. With the stock down 50% since January, even after a HUGE bounce, Abercrombie & Fitch just had to be decent. Anything better than about a 20% guidance cut would have been acceptable. Word was that foot traffic at Abercrombie was lousy. That left ne'er do well Hollister to bail out the corporate ship while $ANF tried to find a bottom. Hollister has had a nice few quarters but that wasn't going to be enough to offset the end of Abercrombie's name-brand and the huge 5 year heater of double-digit comps and fat margins.

Turns out, Hollister had plenty. The tariffs weren't so bad. Business was pretty much fine. Wall Street rejoiced... 

Abercrombie didn't have to be perfect. With shares sitting 50% lower since January sentiment around $ANF was somewhere between "skeptical" and "afraid to look". Word was that traffic was bad at Abecrombie's name-brand stores, leaving Hollister, the surly, less-good-looking younger sibling division of $ANF. Hollister had been good lately but not great. This was supposed to have been a tough quarter for "not great".

As it turned out, Hollister was pretty damn great and the warning was less-than-feared. The stock market rejoiced:

Another strong week for the Round-Up 10 Portfolio with gains last Friday (which now seems like a million years ago) taking us up to over 12% since our March 20 start date, handily beating the S&P500 and the XRT Consumer Discretionary ETF.

Huge week for consumer news. Target and Deckers tanked, Urban Outfitters soared and Williams-Sonoma managed to get out of a tricky earnings report more or less unscathed.

But one of the bigger stories, and biggest moves, happened in a name from the past for reasons no one is really discussing.

Peloton started the week strong in both calls and price action. Suddenly on Thursday morning, in an otherwise bland tape shares started popping, ramping 10% apparently out of nowhere but, as it turns out for pretty good reasons. Trump's Biggest Beautiful Bill didn't just crush solar stocks. It also revised some key terms applying to health savings accounts (HSA). Specifically, the bill expanded the amount and ways money put into an HSA can be used without incurring a 20% penalty.

Among the uses now approved with a pre-existing medical condition? Buying a Peloton.

In effect, customers can now potentially buy almost anything from Peloton's suite of Treads, Bikes, and Rowers with what amounts to pre-tax dollars. Depending on your tax bracket, that can take quite a cut out of the price of a premium bike (a bike that happens to be perfect for HSA purposes since it...

Deckers closed out an eventful week by offering frankly terrifying guidance for the current quarter and refusing to even speculate as to how much worse things could get from here.

The makers of Hoka and Uggs said demand for the former has fallen to a multi-year low of 10% yr/yr growth; numbers that seemed particularly horrifying after everything we heard from On Holdings last week. 

Analysts were quick to pounce, dragging DECK 20% lower and lowering estimates across the street.

With FootLocker and Dicks Sporting Goods (soon to be one company) report next week we'll have a better picture of why On seems to be the only shoe game in town. 

The moves are huge and losers and getting stomped in the shoe world. Stay tuned to this space for the latest as it happens. 

Also check out the brand new Hot Mom's Index I put together with my friend JC.

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup.

We're still in the heart of retail earnings season. This week we heard from names like TGT, TJX, and WSM. Next week we've got DKS, COST, M, BBY, DKS, BURL, KSS and ANF. 

All in all, we had a good week in the Macke Retail Roundup Portfolio, outperforming both the XRT and SPY. 

Here is my latest video update on the portfolio, as well as a couple of new potential adds I'm considering.

Portfolio Members In The News...

Everything wrong at Target is great for TJX, which reported yet another quarter of Beat EPS, Beat Revs, Low-Ball Guidance quarter.

Shares for both are flat for the moment but, having just gotten off the TJX call I can share with all confidence that these companies are going in very different directions. TJX comps were higher in every category, making a mockery of the "consumer uncertainty" Target claims is holding back discretionary spending. 

The quibbles with TJX' quarter (stable margins, no explosive growth, constant, steady improvement) are benefits to the stock. They aren't flashy. They simply kick-ass. On today's call TJX said they want every 10th hanger to "seem priced almost too low, if that makes sense".

At that point I threw my hands in the air and wept for not having owned this stock for the last 5 years. TJX doesn't have committees to speed learning or elaborate turnaround programs. They delight customers with Old School merchant magic.

How's that working out?

Pretty dang well.

TJX Grade: A 

Target didn't have to be "Great" today. They didn't even have to be good. 

Since briefly becoming America's retail comfort food during COVID Target has been on an epic run of failure. The misses have only been interrupted only by short periods of optimism which quickly proved to be misplaced. The trend has been irreversibly lower and the stock shows it. Shares are off 65% from the all-time highs of late 2021 and 25% YTD. 

With all that widely known, all Target had to do "beat expectations" this morning was show any type of pulse. 

Instead, Target turned in the worst earnings report of the quarter among the majors. This had something for everyone. Target missed on every metric. Comp-store sales fell 5.7% which is just... holy crap levels of terrible, compared to Walmart or TJX (which also disappointed with comps only up 3%).

The only gains were in Legal Settlements and same-day delivery, which are One Time and Unprofitable, respectively.

Make no mistake, this is a disaster:

Target is going in the wrong direction at an increasing rate. The company looks old, sloppy and out of ideas. Shares might bounce but there's no reason...

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup.

If a few weeks ago we had 'The Week From Hell" as I called it, then this week was "The Best Week Ever". 

My Retail Roundup Portfolio ripping right now thanks to the changing market sentiment. And our newest position just had its second-best week as a public company. 

So I'm in a great mood! 

Below is my latest update on the portfolio, as well as a couple of new ideas for stocks that I could be interested in soon.

On had to be perfect going into earnings. Fast growth company and priced accordingly. On isn't cheap. It wasn't a month ago at $35 and wasn't when I bought it yesterday at $50.70. What On has transcends cheap. On has momentum, good management, and a near-perfect business model. It's got the fattest margins in footwear.

After running 40% from the lows, On had to be close to perfect when the company reported this morning.

Here's how I graded it... 

I should probably wait. I might be able to buy a dip. But there's a name I've wanted in the portfolio for months. They report tomorrow. Expectations aren't exactly "low" but you don't get many dips in the good names.

Here's why I'm betting on this hot brand ahead of tomorrow's earnings.

We are so freaking back.

In a turn of events which would have been shocking virutally any other time in American history the administration finally agreed to a firm 90 day pause on the Chinese tariffs. "Firm" and "Pause" and "Deescalation" and, really, every word I'd normally apply to these type of announcements obviously come with a grain of a salt these days. This pause could be declared over by the time this note publishes. 

Regardless, we've got a new playing field. It's time to reassess our situation and how it impacts our stocks.

The Field Position:

The XRT consumer index is gapping higher on Monday morning and now clearly forming what I call an Inverted Batman. Silly name, real chart. The basic idea is stocks plunge, first gradually (consumer stocks started breaking at the end of January) then with a smash (the Liberation Day crash). At that point they grind a bit. The Worst Case Scenario gets priced in. Optimism, guarded and cynical though it may be, builds until, finally, the fever breaks and folks start chasing higher.

To whit:

You can call the chart whatever you'd like but the price moves line-up quite...