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Macke's Retail Roundup+ Articles

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Mind the Gap!

As feared, Gap was a sell-the-news moment, with shares crumbling 20%, dragging the Round-10 Portfolio to its first, and only, down week of the month.

Up 10% since March 20 and finding opportunities for the back half of the...

Macke's Retail Roundup
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$COST $GPS $SFIX $URBN $ATZAF
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santa

The spread between valuations between classes of retailers has never been higher and shows no signs of contracting. The looming oligarchy in retail. 

Plus, 5 Below preview: Is this the most Tariff Exposed Company on Earth? 

Macke's Retail Roundup
Macke's Retail Roundup+
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Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup.

The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) closed the week up 0.5%, essentially unchanged. But under the surface, there's been a ton of action. 

...
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dude

"Life's but a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing" - Abercrombie and Fitch's stock.

I promised drama when the mall stocks reported. As usual, the Mall delivered in spades.

Gap disappointed in a way they didn't...

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Gap shares are getting smoked by 20%(!) early Friday after the company Beat by too little and Guided to not enough. 

Time to Buy or Bail?

Let's break down the quarter and figure it out... 

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Beat

Fun facts most people don't know about Build-a-Bear Workshop:

  • It still exists and is publicly traded under the ticker $BBW
  • Shares are up nearly 50x since the COVID lows
  • The stock went public in October 2004, hit $35 two...
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$BBW
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anf

Abercrombie didn't have to be perfect. With the stock down 50% since January, even after a HUGE bounce, Abercrombie & Fitch just had to be decent. Anything better than about a 20% guidance cut would have been acceptable. Word was that foot traffic...

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$ANF
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anf

Abercrombie didn't have to be perfect. With shares sitting 50% lower since January sentiment around $ANF was somewhere between "skeptical" and "afraid to look". Word was that traffic was bad at Abecrombie's name-brand stores, leaving Hollister, the...

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Portfolio

Another strong week for the Round-Up 10 Portfolio with gains last Friday (which now seems like a million years ago) taking us up to over 12% since our March 20 start date, handily beating the S&P500 and the XRT Consumer Discretionary ETF.

...

Macke's Retail Roundup
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$GAP $PTON $COST $BBY
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Peloton

Huge week for consumer news. Target and Deckers tanked, Urban Outfitters soared and Williams-Sonoma managed to get out of a tricky earnings report more or less unscathed.

But one of the bigger stories, and biggest moves, happened in a name from...

Macke's Retail Roundup
Macke's Retail Roundup+
$PTON
D
 

Deckers closed out an eventful week by offering frankly terrifying guidance for the current quarter and refusing to even speculate as to how much worse things could get from here.

The makers of Hoka and Uggs said demand for the former has...

Macke's Retail Roundup
Macke's Retail Roundup+

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup.

We're still in the heart of retail earnings season. This week we heard from names like TGT, TJX, and WSM. Next week we've got DKS, COST, M, BBY, DKS,...

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tjx

Everything wrong at Target is great for TJX, which reported yet another quarter of Beat EPS, Beat Revs, Low-Ball Guidance quarter.

Shares for both are flat for the moment but, having just gotten off the TJX call I can share with all confidence...

Macke's Retail Roundup
Macke's Retail Roundup+
$TJX
sad

Target didn't have to be "Great" today. They didn't even have to be good. 

Since briefly becoming America's retail comfort food during COVID Target has been on an epic run of failure. The misses have only been interrupted only by short...

Macke's Retail Roundup
Macke's Retail Roundup+
$TGT

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup.

If a few weeks ago we had 'The Week From Hell" as I called it, then this week was "The Best Week Ever". 

My Retail Roundup...

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On Crushes

On had to be perfect going into earnings. Fast growth company and priced accordingly. On isn't cheap. It wasn't a month ago at $35 and wasn't when I bought it yesterday at $50.70. What On has transcends cheap. On has momentum, good management, and a...

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ONON

I should probably wait. I might be able to buy a dip. But there's a name I've wanted in the portfolio for months. They report tomorrow. Expectations aren't exactly "low" but you don't get many dips in the good names.

Here's why I'm betting on...

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Inverted Bat

We are so freaking back.

In a turn of events which would have been shocking virutally any other time in American history the administration finally agreed to a firm 90 day pause on the Chinese tariffs. "Firm" and "Pause" and "Deescalation" and,...

Macke's Retail Roundup
Macke's Retail Roundup+

Below is my weekly video for members of Macke's Retail Roundup. 

We've entered the retail portion of earnings season. This week I analyzed the reports and reactions from DIS and PTON, two consumer stocks I watch closely...

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Pton
 

Peloton shares are down pre-market despite the company doing just about anything analysts could have asked from it.

Churn hit 1.2% despite a massive drop in marketing spend. As mentioned in the preview yesterday, if Peloton can retain the...

Macke's Retail Roundup
Macke's Retail Roundup+
$PTON

Macke portfolio holding Peloton reports in the morning. Officially the Street is looking for a loss of 6c on ~$650mm for the quarter and about $2.5b in revenue for the year, cranking out about $300 to $350 million EBITDA.

But that's not what I'...

Macke's Retail Roundup
Macke's Retail Roundup+