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Under the Hood (06-10-2024)

June 10, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended June 7, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Gold Passes the Stress Test

June 10, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals bulls are waking up following last week’s selling pressure.

Copper, silver, platinum: It didn’t matter. Base and precious metals took a hit.

It was ugly but not a complete disaster.

Call me a gold bug if you like (I won’t take offense), but don’t overlook the key takeaway from last week’s session: gold’s resilience.

[Options] A New Twist On Our Uncle Warren Trade

June 10, 2024

In what has become pretty well documented over the past two years or so, our Uncle Warren Buffett has been accumulating a very large position in Occidental Petroleum $OXY. He's been making his buys in the neighborhood of $55-60 per share. Like clockwork, every time $OXY has traded below $60 per share, we see new Form-4 filings disclosing another large purchase by Berkshire Hathaway.

We at All Star Charts were a little ahead of the crowd on this trade, having sold puts numerous times in $OXY over the past two years at these levels to take advantage of elevated options premiums and the "Buffett Support Zone."

But it is no longer a secret. And there are many more people than us who are aware of this trade -- which, to me, makes it vulnerable.

If Buffet's buying can no longer support the stock price, or if/when he decides he's got enough and stops his accumulating, we might experience a narrative shift that could result in a swift repricing of this stock to lower prices. This makes selling naked puts a riskier proposition. And right now, even worse, the premiums in $OXY puts are pretty...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Gold Passes the Stress Test

June 10, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals bulls are waking up following last week’s selling pressure.

Copper, Silver, Platinum: It didn’t matter. Base and precious metals took a hit.

It was ugly but not a complete disaster.

Call me a gold bug if you like (I won’t take offense), but don’t overlook the key takeaway from last week’s session: Gold’s resilience.

Buffett Reports a $153 Million OXY Purchase

June 10, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.

Buffett and Berkshire continue to accumulate shares of Occidental Petroleum $OXY, disclosing yet another purchase, this one worth roughly $153 million.

We take a detailed look at Buffett's and Berkshire's OXY purchases and the share price reaction below.

Hot Corner Insider

Buffett Reports a $153 Million OXY Purchase

June 10, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider buy on today’s list comes via a Form 4 filing by Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.

Buffett and Berkshire continue to accumulate shares of Occidental Petroleum $OXY, disclosing yet another purchase, this one worth roughly $153 million.

We take a detailed look at Buffett’s and Berkshire’s OXY purchases and the share price reaction below.

All Star Charts Crypto

📅 Bitcoin Miners Look Terrific

June 9, 2024

This was a rather positive week for the crypto complex, with Bitcoin looking poised to break higher.

At the same time, crypto stocks seem to be front running a Bitcoin breakout, particularly as merger activity in the mining sector has buoyed the price of these stocks.

All Star Charts Crypto

🔍 Short-term Weakness

June 9, 2024

Last week saw short-term weakness manifest in crypto markets. For the time being, I still have a neutral short-term bias in the context of a longer-term bullish outlook.

Observations from Urgent Care

June 8, 2024

My son is perfectly fine.

But his face was bubbling up earlier this week after eating cashews.

I feel bad for him because cashews are delicious.

The Dr. gave him some Benadryl and some other stuff and he was just fine within the hour.

But we were hanging out at the urgent care for a while and I couldn't help myself but look around and notice all the nurse tchotchkes.

It was quite obvious that everything had a Mckesson label on it. There was Mckesson everywhere!

So it shouldn't be a surprise that the chart looks like this:

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International Hall of Famers (06-07-2024)

June 7, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

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Copper’s Sharp Drop Shocks the Bulls

June 7, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Copper Springs into Action… Buyers Dig Copper… Copper, F%$# Yeah!

Those are a few titles I spitballed last night. But the markets wouldn’t have it.

This morning, the overall theme of the metals space turned on its head, trashing my bullish bias.

To be clear, I still have a favorable outlook for base and precious metals over longer time frames…

Yet we’re all forced to navigate the near-term selling pressure. 

Earlier this week, Dr. Copper found support right where we would expect – a key retracement level:

Buyers stepped in and drove prices higher, regaining more than 3% since mid-week. However, sellers are having the last laugh this morning as they take it back and some before lunchtime. 

Copper futures fell 3.50% during the morning session. 

Luckily, today is National Donut Day. So...

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Investors Ice the Bond Market Rally

June 7, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

G7 central banks are cutting rates – first Canada and now the European Union.

Will the Federal Reserve follow suit in the coming months?

Investors seem to think so…

US 30-year T-bond futures have posted positive returns six days in a row – their longest winning streak since April last year.

T-bonds also broke above a key polarity zone, triggering our buy signals from last month:

I’ve made clear my disdain for buying treasuries, so the long bond trade will likely be a winner. After all, the best trades are often the hardest to take.

But price is sliding back below our risk level following the May nonfarm payroll data. And a yearlong downtrend line continues to act as resistance. Until T-bond futures break through resistance, the downtrend remains intact,...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Copper’s Sharp Drop Shocks the Bulls

June 7, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Copper Springs into Action… Buyers Dig Copper… Copper, F%$# Yeah!

Those are a few titles I spitballed last night. But the markets wouldn’t have it.

This morning, the overall theme of the metals space turned on its head, trashing my bullish bias.

To be clear, I still have a favorable outlook for base and precious metals over longer time frames…

Yet we’re all forced to navigate the near-term selling pressure. 

 

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Buying Cheap Volatility on Ebay

June 7, 2024

It's been a minute since I've bought anything on eBay. But, by the look of the chart, I must be the outlier as it appears there is still good business there and market participants appear to agree.

Here's what my Analysts had to say about $EBAY in a recent 2 to 100 Club report:

eBay is completing a rounding bottom reversal as it reclaims the 38.2% retracement level. This level has acted as resistance multiple times in the past, making it a great place to define our risk. If this breakout sticks, the primary trend is higher, and we want to be long against the 53 level.

On a relative basis, the stock is working its way higher out of a bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern versus its peers. If the reversal pattern is completed on absolute terms, we expect the stock to outperform its peers over longer timeframes.

We want to buy EBAY above 53, with a target of 64 over the coming 2-4 months.

Here's a visual of that chart: