A brief prefix.

To my knowledge, Ethena's governance token is only listed on exchanges that aren't available to US members. I try to make the majority of all trade ideas accessible to everyone, but I don't want to rule out trades those in other areas of the world will be able to access.

Hope you understand.

Chopsolidation has been the key theme in recent weeks. Crypto markets have been in a process of digesting their recent gains, and now we await the next signal.

Aside from a small number of A+ setups, I'm being patient and giving the market time to consolidate. This seems like the prudent course of action.

Did you see Gold just close at the highest price in history?

This is something we've never ever seen before - Gold closing out a week above $2300/oz.

It's the highest valuation for Gold in its entire history.

This is what that looks like:

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

The most profitable part of a new market regime is how long it takes most investors to come around to it.

Humans are creatures of habit.

It's not easy to just shift an entire mindset, especially one that was over a decade in the making.

"I'm a Growth Investor"

"There is no reason to invest outside the United States"

"Stocks & Bonds. What are Commodities?"

"Why would I invest in Gold, when I can own more Tech?"

"The government...

Asset prices trend.

We know this for a fact.

The data is available going back over 100 years.

I encourage you to go back and see for yourself.

What you’ll also find is that certain types of trends last longer than others.

When you have an asset or group of assets trending in the same direction all over the world, the profits can be life changing.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities are hot.

Even the most ardent tech investors can’t avert their gaze from Gold’s eye-catching new highs. 

If you find yourself unprepared, don’t be alarmed. We have a plan…

Buy base breakouts.

Check out coffee futures ripping above a shelf of former highs:

We often joke that catching base breakouts like this gets us out of bed in the morning. (It’s the best part of waking up.)   

The trade setup outlined at the beginning of the year still stands, though the contacts have changed. (May now represents the most actively traded month and our contract of choice. However, it will likely roll to July next week.)

I like coffee futures long above 197 with an initial target of 260. But it wouldn’t surprise me if coffee experiences a parabolic advance...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Airbnb and Uber.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we sort the remaining names by...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our April Monthly Strategy Session earlier this week. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. New position in XLB (Materials).
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes via a Form 4 filing by ilWaddi Cayman Holdings.

The firm reported a purchase of 40,000 shares, equivalent to $202,800, in AlTi Global $ATI.

How I learned it more than a couple of decades ago was that there were 3 asset classes: Stocks, Bonds AND Commodities.

But a funny thing happened throughout the 2010s. Commodities did so poorly, particularly when you compare their performance to Stocks and Bonds, that investors completely forgot that Commodities were an asset class.

Many newer investors never even knew in the first place.

But yes folks, there are 3 asset classes. And that 3rd one that everyone conveniently forgot about is the one that is dominating returns this cycle.

Here is a ratio of Commodities to Bonds in a strong uptrend as everyone keeps telling me that interest rates are falling.

It's actually the exact opposite. Interest rates keep going up, as Commodities rip higher and bonds keep falling apart.

You're going to tell me this isn't an uptrend?

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities are hot.

Even the most ardent tech investors can’t avert their gaze from Gold’s eye-catching new highs. 

If you find yourself unprepared, don’t be alarmed. We have a plan…

Buy base breakouts.

Check out coffee futures ripping above a shelf of former highs:

We often joke that catching base breakouts like this gets us out of bed in the morning. (It’s the best part of waking up.)   

The trade setup outlined at the beginning of the year still stands, though the contacts have changed. (May now represents the most actively traded month and our contract of choice. However, it will likely roll to July next week.)

I like coffee futures long above 197 with an initial target of 260. But it wouldn’t surprise me if coffee experiences a parabolic advance similar to the rally off the 2020 lows. 

If you’re one of the many clinging to the disinflation narrative or any narrative other than price, it’s time to update your priors and take action.

Commodities are in the midst of a bull run that began in 2020. Gold is printing another new all-time high...

Everything started to change in February.

We were right here talking about it.

You saw the major shift in March for sure. It was obvious to everyone.

But the cracks actually started to show up in early February.

In fact, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq100 are still at the same levels they were in early February.

The Russell2000 and S&P600 Small-cap Indexes are both still below their December highs.

Apple just hit the lowest levels since October, making this one of the best bearish positions we put on this year, outside of the $LULU trade.

Both of these have worked out very well.

And I think there are more of these epic downtrends...

Here's this week's crypto roundup. It's an opportunity for us to take a step back, set aside the distractions, and delve into the key charts shaping the crypto complex.

This week, we analyzed the state of Bitcoin's profitability on-chain and what that means for you.

 We've built a proprietary scan that notifies us whenever a cryptocurrency exceeds a certain market-cap threshold for the first time. When there's an up and coming cryptocurrency, we're the first one to know about it.

This scan flags breakthrough cryptocurrencies, allowing us to capitalize on lucrative opportunities before they become mainstream.

Every week, we create a Power Rankings table that lists the market-cap rank of the top 20 cryptocurrencies. This allows us to see the winners and losers as they climb the market-cap ladder.

When I was reviewing my open positions this morning, I couldn’t help but have the feeling that all good runs must eventually come to an end. Everything goes through cycles.

As I was doing post-mortems on winning trades that recently closed, and updating stops on winning trends I’m continuing to ride, a feeling of foreboding hit me that this run feels “too good to be true.”

This isn’t necessarily true, but it has felt like any long trade I’ve put on recently was destined to be a winner. If I’m not careful, I can easily cross the chasm into blind overconfidence. That’s where most trouble starts. Certainly for me, anyway.

In the near future, I’ll probably be looking for less aggressively bullish bets. And the ones I choose will likely require longer timeframes to play out. Meanwhile, I’m beginning to favor some delta-neutral credit spreads wherever I can find favorable setups.

I touch upon this and much more in this week’s Options Jam Session:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes via a Form 4 filing by ilWaddi Cayman Holdings.

The firm reported a purchase of 40,000 shares, equivalent to $202,800, in AlTi Global $ATI.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Can we all give the rate cut debate a break?

Everyone is obsessing over the Fed’s rate cut plans. Meanwhile, interest rates are climbing to their highest level since early December.

Instead of following Fed gossip and what-ifs, focus on what is: Yields continue to creep higher as inflationary assets rip.

Check out our Global Benchmark Rate Composite, an equal-weight basket of Developed Market 10-year yields (Germany, UK, Canada, France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Japan, Australia, and the US):

Our global composite is holding well above the lower bounds of a yearlong range, catching toward the underside of a flat 200-day moving average. 

Yields on sovereign debt show no signs of an imminent collapse.

Could rates roll over in the coming quarters? Absolutely! 

But the data fails to support a falling interest rate thesis. In fact, the charts suggest quite the opposite…

...