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The Strazza Letter

Cathie is Back

February 19, 2025

They said it was game over for these stocks.

They’ll never see those valuations again.

They are just stories. They don’t have profits.

They can’t survive a rising rate environment.

We’ve heard it all about speculative growth stocks over the past few years.

Cathie Wood and the entire ARK Invest strategy has been lambasted by the media. 

You’ve seen the cover stories. They tried to destroy her. 

But Cathie’s ARK didn’t wreck. It survived the storm. 

And I think it’s bigger than that. I think the most speculative, highest risk, longest duration equities are about to have their time in the sun again. 

Everything I’m seeing suggests we are entering that part of the cycle where the worst stocks become the best stocks. 

...
All Star Options

[Options Premium] An Earnings Boost Can Bust This Box Higher

February 19, 2025

Today's trade is in a name that JC liked on his recent Mid-Month conference call.

The stock is hanging around the upper end of a "box" it's been in, just below all-time highs. And with earnings coming up in a couple of weeks, it feels to me like it's just waiting for that "all clear" catalyst to allow it to break higher.

I'm going to get positioned now.

2 to 100 Club,
All Star Charts Premium

2 to 100 Club (02-19-2025)

February 19, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 2/19/25

February 19, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in TLT.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. Closed XLV (loss) and USO (profit).
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

Director Robo Reports a $10 Million JBHT Purchase

February 19, 2025

Today's insider action starts with a bold move at J.B. Hunt $JBHT, where director James Robo disclosed a purchase of nearly $10 million.

RA Capital Management reported an original 13D showing a 23.7% stake in Sionna Therapeutics $SION. 

The biotech-focused hedge fund has a strong track record in early-stage investments, making this one to watch.

Among its largest holdings are Ascendis Pharma $ASND, Vaxcyte $PCVX, and Janux Therapeutics $JANX.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 18, 2025:

 

Meanwhile, Pinetree Capital Ltd just filed a Form 4 for TruBridge $TBRG, totaling more than $3 million.

Last but not least, Farallon Capital Partners made moves in both Aramark $ARMK and New York Times $NYT, raising its ownership to above 5% in each.

The Nvidia of Utilities: Consistent Blockbuster Earnings Are Fueling This Company's Ascent 📊🔥

February 19, 2025

Constellation Energy $CEG just released another blockbuster earnings report.

The company exceeded the top end of its guidance range for the second consecutive year.

In addition, they are returning money to shareholders at a rapid clip. Last year, they repurchased $1B in common stock.

Moreover, CEG increased the annual dividend by 25% last year and plans to grow the dividend by another 10% this year.

For the 11th consecutive year, they were the United States' largest producer of emissions-free energy. 

It's safe to say that Constellation is the Nvidia of "AI Utilities." It's a fantastic company!

Let's talk about what else happened 👇

Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500: 

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, Entergy had the best earnings reaction on Tuesday, and Medtronic had the worst. 

Constellation Energy was the largest company to report. It reported mixed results and rallied 2.6% with a reaction score of 0.3. It was muted.

Now, let's dig into the data and talk about some of the best and worst earnings reactions 👇

CEG is flirting with...
The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Wednesday, February 19, 2025

February 19, 2025

Today's number is... 587

With the S&P 500 index reaching a new all-time high yesterday, this current bull market has persisted for the past 587 trading days.

How much longer can this run continue? 

Here is the table:

 

Let's break down what this table shows:

  • The green box represents all of the bull markets dating back to 1950. A bull market is defined as a rally of 20% or more that follows a drop of 20% or more.
  • The red box represents all of the bear markets since 1950. A bear market is defined as a drop of 20% or more that follows a rally of 20% or more.

The Takeaway: There is nothing more bullish than hitting all-time highs.

Yesterday's all-time high marks the second all-time high for the S&P 500 index in 2025. Over the last 587 trading days, this bull market has delivered a remarkable return of 71.4%. However, it’s important to note that the average bull market lasts around 1,138 trading days and typically achieves a return of 153%. Consequently, this bull market, while strong, is still below the...

All Star Charts Premium

The Short Report (02-18-2025)

February 18, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

I’m Bullish Europe

February 18, 2025

I'm in the UK visiting my sister for a couple weeks, and I have to tell you—I love it here.

The vibes, the peace, and the sense of adventure just hit different. It never gets old to visit Europe. There are so many incredible places, rich with history and culture, all packed close together.

But for me, it's hard not to think about how these European indexes are moving lately.

They’re all ripping. 

From the all-time highs in Germany and the UK to big structural trend reversals in Italy, Spain, and Greece, investors are embracing risk, and it's showing up across the board.

Unlike in the U.S., where tech dominates, these European indexes are built differently. They have a ton of financials, industrials, and even utilities. That’s just how it works here.

...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Most Traders Will Hate This Trade

February 18, 2025

...and that's precisely why I love it.

While me and the All Star Charts gang have been pounding the table on China for several weeks now, it is still a mostly hated and certainly misunderstood trend. But that's mostly because people are reading the political headlines and ignoring the only thing that doesn't lie to us -- price.

So I'm putting on a trade that might take some heat, and I'm in it to win it.

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 2/18/25

February 18, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled IGV position to April options.
  3. Closed XLE (loss) and XLI (profit).
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Hot Corner Insider

SoftBank Is Back for More BABA

February 18, 2025

Today’s most significant insider transaction comes via a 13G filing by SoftBank, which reported a fresh 8% stake in Alibaba $BABA.

This marks a notable shift in SoftBank's strategy after it nearly unloaded its entire BABA position last year.

Given the timing and size of the purchase, we’re treating it as a “new position.” And such fresh bets are always worth noting.

Director John Cote filed a Form 4 revealing a purchase of roughly $10 million in CompoSecure Inc $CMPO.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 14, 2025:

 

Broadwood Partners L.P. filed a Form 4 showing a $6.27 million purchase in Staar Surgical Co $STAA.

Last but not least, Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas reported a purchase worth between $100,000 and $250,000 in Humana Inc $HUM.

Vacation Boom: This Company is Riding the Bull Market in Travel 📊🐂

February 18, 2025

Airbnb $ABNB had its best day ever on Friday after it reported a double beat and raised its guidance the night before. 

It was a fabulous report.

Not only are they growing top-line at 12% Y/Y, but the company is a free cash flow machine. 

The company's free cash flow margin is 40%, which enables it to repurchase nearly $1B worth of common stock each quarter.

It's a share cannibal.

In addition, ABNB is investing $250M in launching and scaling new businesses this year. 

The management team isn't satisfied with their current market share. They want MORE!

The market loves their attitude, and the stock has been rewarded accordingly.

Let's talk about what else happened 👇

Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500: 

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, Airbnb had the best earnings reaction on Friday, and Godaddy had the worst.

Applied Materials was the largest company to report. It reported a double beat but fell 8.2% with a reaction score of -3.6. 

Now, let's dig into the data and talk about some of the best and worst earnings reactions...

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Tuesday, February 18, 2025

February 18, 2025

Today's number is... 86%

The percentage of world markets above their 50-day moving average has surged to 86%. But how strong are these trends?

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The black line shows the percentage of world markets above their 50-day average.
  • The red line shows the percentage of world markets that have a 50-day average greater than their 200-day average. 

The Takeaway: The key development here is that global breadth is improving, which is typically supportive of US stocks. Currently, the percentage of world markets above their 50-day moving average has reached its highest level since September of last year. This recent increase in global breadth readings suggests that the underlying short-term strength in the market is healthy, potentially presenting short-term opportunities. 

While this is a promising starting point for world markets, the overall trend strength of most world markets remains weak. To clarify how I identify a strong uptrend: is when the 50-day moving average is above the...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 America Falling Down on Global Stage

February 17, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

Something we've noted in recent weeks is how the United States is falling down the list. Unsuspectedly, we think this is actually rather bullish.

This is because American equities aren't weak - quite the opposite! They're trading at all time highs.

Instead, we're seeing more countries beginning to participate. This points to a growing number of opportunities forming outside the United States; this widening of global breadth is bullish from a macro perspective and suggests this is a global trend, not just a domestic one.

Quantifying this, while the US is still in the top half of the power rankings table, its position has been falling for many weeks now.

 

Does the US fall into that red zone?

We'd love to hear your thoughts on this one. Reach out if you have any thoughts.

A Generational Trade is Here

Stocks are at all time highs.

...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Silver Catching Higher to Gold

February 17, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

The same industry groups are continuing to lead, as pictured by the big block of green on our table. This once again points to the efficacy of erring on the side of relative strength; when an ETF flips green it has a tendency to stay green.

Interestingly, silver and gold miners have migrated higher on the table.

 

Zooming out, Silver looks to be completing a long-term breakout and catching higher to Gold.

This is clearly a significant tailwind for these ETFs.