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Parties Are Better in Bull Markets: This Stock is Benefiting From It 📊🥳

February 14, 2025

In bull markets, consumers spend money. It's human nature.

MGM Resorts has been capitalizing on this increase in consumer spending, and the market is rewarding it.

After reporting a double beat on Wednesday evening, the stock had its best earnings reaction since 2009 on Thursday. 

It rallied 17.5% with a reaction score of 6.3. The reaction was sweet!

What's driving this strength? 

First of all, the company reported a 94% occupancy rate for the month of January. This is a record.

Second, they're anticipating a resurgence in China, which has been their primary driver for growth in recent years.

Finally, MGM is a share cannibal. Since 2021, they have repurchased 40% of total outstanding shares. 

This is one of the highest buyback rates in the entire market, and shareholders are loving it.

Let's talk about what else happened 👇

Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500: 

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, MGM Resorts International had the best earnings reaction on Thursday, and West Pharmaceutical Services had the worst.

Cisco Systems was...

All Star Charts Premium

Nasdaq100 Hits New All-time High

February 14, 2025

Yesterday we saw the Nasdaq100 close at new all-time highs, on an equally-weighted basis!

I keep being told that market breadth is weakening, mostly from people who haven't even bothered to count. 

So let me ask you...

Is the equally-weighted Nasdaq100 closing at the highest level in its entire history evidence of broadening strength, or a weakening market?

 

I'm old enough to remember when they were telling me that this was all just a "bear market rally" and that we shouldn't be buying stocks.

Then it was, "Only 6 stocks going up", so we shouldn't be buying stocks.

Now they're telling me that market breadth is weakening, when it's actually broadening, and that we shouldn't be buying stocks.

You know what we've been doing this entire bull market? We've been buying stocks, and laughing about it along the way.

You've had a front row seat to it all.

And this was just while it was mostly U.S. stocks doing well. Now we're seeing broadening participation all over the world, with areas like Latin America hitting new multi-month highs, Europe hitting all-time highs, and now Southeast Asia really getting going

Here is...

ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 This Theme Could Explode in 2025

February 14, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

Notice how green the top section of the thematics table has been.

The same themes continue to dominate; crypto stocks, speculative tech, gaming etc. China growth is also beginning to appear on this list of predominant themes.

While a large portion of Ark's funds are ranking green on our table, one notable exception is Ark's Genomic ETF $ARKG. Interestingly, it's beginning to transition to a lighter shade of red.

 

Volatility in the ETF is trading at multi-year lows, which could suggest an explosive move is around the corner.

This is an ETF that's on our radar, especially if it breaks to new highs.

 
ETF Power Rankings Archives

🔎 Communication Stocks Look Fantastic

February 14, 2025
📊 Daily ETF Overview 

Again, we keep pointing to how many different sectors there are showing relative strength and inhabiting the top area of our sector power rankings.

This points to a wide set of sectors participating, which is positive to see.

Noticeably, Large Cap Communications $XLC looks fantastic, breaking to new all time highs. So long as XLC is above the prior highs near 102, the bias is to the upside.

 
The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Friday, February 14, 2025

February 14, 2025

Today's number is... 22

The relative ratio of Home Construction vs S&P 500 has fallen to its lowest level in 22 months.

Here’s the chart:

 

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The blue line shows the relative ratio of the Home Construction Index $ITB vs S&P 500 $SPY

The Takeaway: One group that has been under selling pressure lately has been Home Construction, and we can highlight this weakness in a relative ratio versus the broader market.

Home Construction is one of the most crucial industry groups in America, as these stocks are highly cyclical. They act as an excellent gauge for growth and often act as a leading indicator for the broader market. 

Typically, when home construction stocks are trending higher, it's happening in an environment conducive to risk-seeking behavior. Right now, that is not the case, as this relative ratio is at its lowest level in 22 months. 

This does not bode well for risk assets, and if we're really in an environment where risk assets are trending higher and bulls are in control,...

The Strazza Letter

Where Is It Coming From?

February 13, 2025

The bid for Chinese equities has been relentless all year long.

Alibaba is up about 50% over the trailing month.

BYD Co is up about 30% in February alone.

Xiaomi Corp is making new all-time highs.

Even the iShares China Large Cap Index has rallied 20% off its January lows.

You get the point. China is red hot. 

With price action like this, you might start to wonder, “where is all the money coming from!?”

And the answer is probably a lot of places. Who knows.

But one area that has definitely become a source of funds for new China bulls… is India. 

 

This is a ratio chart of Chinese stocks vs Indian stocks, and it is flashing a textbook trend reversal in favor of China.

The relationship had been skewed toward India in a big way up until last year. In fact, Indian stocks have been outperforming China aggressively for almost a decade now. This all began back in 2016, so...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

The Uber of the Skies

February 13, 2025

Have you heard about these electric helicopter stocks?

They’re being called the "Uber of the skies," racing to launch air taxis in major cities sooner than most people expect.

Imagine skipping traffic as an air shuttle arrives to take you straight to the airport.

It sounds almost too good to be true.

But the reality is that there's some serious juice in these names.

One in particular that is setting up nicely is Archer Aviation $ACHR.

Just look at this chart.

 

After a strong run last year, it's been consolidating in a tight range, digesting gains before its next move.

This contraction in volatility often precedes wild moves, in either direction.

With a 16% short interest, the setup looks even better for the bulls to squeeze the bears.

...
Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 2/13/25

February 13, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolling GLD to April options.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

The Market is Bullish HIV: Here's The Stock That's Dominating 📊

February 13, 2025

CVS Health $CVS just had its best earnings reaction ever. It was fantastic.

The company issued a guidance for 2025 that was much better than expected. They plan to make between $5.75 and $6 of earnings per share this year.

David Joyner, the recently appointed CEO, has also done a fabulous job stabilizing Aetna's performance. This is what the market wants.

Let's talk about what else happened 👇

Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500: 

*click the image to enlarge it

As you can see, CVS Health had the best earnings reaction and reaction score during Wednesday's trading session.

On the downside, Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies had the worst earnings reaction and reaction score.

Now, let's dig into the data 👇

CVS had its best earnings reaction ever: 

CVS Health was on the verge of resolving a multi-decade Kardashian topping pattern. This earnings reaction happened exactly when the bulls needed to step up and buy.

On a relative basis, the stock has resolved a distribution pattern that goes back to the 20th century versus the broader market. This suggests a...

Hot Corner Insider

Chief Commercial Officer Phil Guido Is Buying AMD Shares

February 13, 2025

Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Phil Guido just dropped $1 million on 4,645 shares of Advanced Micro Devices $AMD.

Guido is the one driving AMD's global commercial strategy. He's got a front-row seat to the company's growth prospects, so if he's buying, that's worth noting.

But what really stands out is the wave of CEO buying across the board.

The heads of Amcor $AMCR, Magnera $MAGN, Enanta Pharma $ENTA, and Kennametal $KMT all stepped in to buy their own stock.

When you see a bunch of CEOs putting their money where their mouth is, you pay attention.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 12, 2025:

 

Meanwhile, Rep. Ro Khanna was busy, reporting multiple buys across major names like Visa $V, JPMorgan $JPM, Mondelez $MDLZ, Qualcomm $QCOM, Cisco $CSCO, and PepsiCo $PEP, each purchase between $15,000 and $50,000.

...

All Star Charts Crypto

📊 Buying People's Fear

February 13, 2025

The altcoin space just got obliterated.

Traders have been liquidated en masse, and bullish positioning has been wiped clean. By definition, pessimism now outweighs optimism.

But if you've been following along, you know I spent months neutral on crypto. After this selloff, I’ve flipped bullish.

Zoom out. This is a textbook flush at a key demand zone.

While others get caught in the noise, I’m simplifying—weekly line chart, nothing fancy. The setups I’ve been waiting for in AI coins are here.

The Daily Number

The Daily Number 💯 Thursday, February 13, 2025

February 13, 2025

Today's number is... 43

Global participation is expanding, with the majority of the 43 global ETFs I track are now above their shorter-term moving averages.

Here’s the table:

 

Let's break down what the table shows:

Each row in the table represents a developed or emerging market country ETF. The columns indicate the percentage by which each country is above or below its key moving averages, starting with the 10-day moving average and progressing up to the 200-day moving average.

The Takeaway: The improvement seen over the past few weeks is not just limited to the US. The percentage of global markets moving back above key short-term averages has been increasing throughout 2025, with the leadership primarily coming from the 22 developed markets. While these shorter-term trends have been strengthening beneath the surface, the shift at the index level has only recently begun.

These kinds of improvements in market breadth could establish a strong foundation for a sustained global rally. However, for me to believe that this recent run-up has lasting potential, I need to see the leadership...

Alfonso’s Daily Note

Is Inflation Making a Comeback?

February 12, 2025

When it comes to inflation expectations, the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities vs the US Treasury Bonds ratio is one of the best ways to measure it.

When investors anticipate rising prices for goods, they hedge by favoring TIPS over traditional bonds.

The TIP/IEF ratio is ripping to its highest level in almost three years.

It’s no coincidence that the Bloomberg Commodity Index $DJP looks just like it.

 

If we’re heading into another inflationary period, then commodities, energy, metals-related equities, natural resources, and international markets should be top of mind.

There are many ways to take advantage of this trend, and options are one of them.

We’ve been on it through Breakout Multiplier for a while now. Steve’s all over this move, and so am I.

...

The Strazza Letter

Animal Spirits in Europe

February 12, 2025

All the Euro STOXX Indexes are at new all-time highs.

The DAX is at new all-time highs.

Germany is about to break out of a massive base in USD terms.

Spain and Greece are completing multi-decade bases.

European equities are on absolute fire right now and participation is broad.

Meanwhile, they are still talking about the recession in the Eurozone.

It’s a perfect setup. In fact, the bull thesis here is a lot like China in a sense that many of these countries check all three boxes… sentiment, technicals, and valuation.

Some of these European countries like Poland and Austria are even cheaper than China with CAPE ratios around 10x. 

They also come with plenty of beta. For example, the MSCI Poland ETF EPOL is already up about 150% off its 2022 cycle low.

This kind of action says a lot about risk appetite, too. This is true for some areas of Europe more than others.

...