Yesterday we saw the Nasdaq100 close at new all-time highs, on an equally-weighted basis!
I keep being told that market breadth is weakening, mostly from people who haven't even bothered to count.
So let me ask you...
Is the equally-weighted Nasdaq100 closing at the highest level in its entire history evidence of broadening strength, or a weakening market?
I'm old enough to remember when they were telling me that this was all just a "bear market rally" and that we shouldn't be buying stocks.
Then it was, "Only 6 stocks going up", so we shouldn't be buying stocks.
Now they're telling me that market breadth is weakening, when it's actually broadening, and that we shouldn't be buying stocks.
You know what we've been doing this entire bull market? We've been buying stocks, and laughing about it along the way.
You've had a front row seat to it all.
And this was just while it was mostly U.S. stocks doing well. Now we're seeing broadening participation all over the world, with areas like Latin America hitting new multi-month highs, Europe hitting all-time highs, and now Southeast Asia really getting going
Notice how green the top section of the thematics table has been.
The same themes continue to dominate; crypto stocks, speculative tech, gaming etc. China growth is also beginning to appear on this list of predominant themes.
While a large portion of Ark's funds are ranking green on our table, one notable exception is Ark's Genomic ETF $ARKG. Interestingly, it's beginning to transition to a lighter shade of red.
Volatility in the ETF is trading at multi-year lows, which could suggest an explosive move is around the corner.
This is an ETF that's on our radar, especially if it breaks to new highs.
Again, we keep pointing to how many different sectors there are showing relative strength and inhabiting the top area of our sector power rankings.
This points to a wide set of sectors participating, which is positive to see.
Noticeably, Large Cap Communications $XLC looks fantastic, breaking to new all time highs. So long as XLC is above the prior highs near 102, the bias is to the upside.
The relative ratio of Home Construction vs S&P 500 has fallen to its lowest level in 22 months.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The blue line shows the relative ratio of the Home Construction Index $ITB vs S&P 500 $SPY
The Takeaway: One group that has been under selling pressure lately has been Home Construction, and we can highlight this weakness in a relative ratio versus the broader market.
Home Construction is one of the most crucial industry groups in America, as these stocks are highly cyclical. They act as an excellent gauge for growth and often act as a leading indicator for the broader market.
Typically, when home construction stocks are trending higher, it's happening in an environment conducive to risk-seeking behavior. Right now, that is not the case, as this relative ratio is at its lowest level in 22 months.
This does not bode well for risk assets, and if we're really in an environment where risk assets are trending higher and bulls are in control,...
Even the iShares China Large Cap Index has rallied 20% off its January lows.
You get the point. China is red hot.
With price action like this, you might start to wonder, “where is all the money coming from!?”
And the answer is probably a lot of places. Who knows.
But one area that has definitely become a source of funds for new China bulls… is India.
This is a ratio chart of Chinese stocks vs Indian stocks, and it is flashing a textbook trend reversal in favor of China.
The relationship had been skewed toward India in a big way up until last year. In fact, Indian stocks have been outperforming China aggressively for almost a decade now. This all began back in 2016, so...
CVS Health $CVS just had its best earnings reaction ever. It was fantastic.
The company issued a guidance for 2025 that was much better than expected. They plan to make between $5.75 and $6 of earnings per share this year.
David Joyner, the recently appointed CEO, has also done a fabulous job stabilizing Aetna's performance. This is what the market wants.
Let's talk about what else happened 👇
Here are the latest earnings reactions from the S&P 500:
*click the image to enlarge it
As you can see, CVS Health had the best earnings reaction and reaction score during Wednesday's trading session.
On the downside, Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies had the worst earnings reaction and reaction score.
Now, let's dig into the data 👇
CVS had its best earnings reaction ever:
CVS Health was on the verge of resolving a multi-decade Kardashian topping pattern. This earnings reaction happened exactly when the bulls needed to step up and buy.
On a relative basis, the stock has resolved a distribution pattern that goes back to the 20th century versus the broader market. This suggests a...
Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Phil Guido just dropped $1 million on 4,645 shares of Advanced Micro Devices $AMD.
Guido is the one driving AMD's global commercial strategy. He's got a front-row seat to the company's growth prospects, so if he's buying, that's worth noting.
But what really stands out is the wave of CEO buying across the board.
The heads of Amcor $AMCR, Magnera $MAGN, Enanta Pharma $ENTA, and Kennametal $KMT all stepped in to buy their own stock.
When you see a bunch of CEOs putting their money where their mouth is, you pay attention.
Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from February 12, 2025:
Meanwhile, Rep. Ro Khanna was busy, reporting multiple buys across major names like Visa $V, JPMorgan $JPM, Mondelez $MDLZ, Qualcomm $QCOM, Cisco $CSCO, and PepsiCo $PEP, each purchase between $15,000 and $50,000.
Global participation is expanding, with the majority of the 43 global ETFs I track are now above their shorter-term moving averages.
Here’s the table:
Let's break down what the table shows:
Each row in the table represents a developed or emerging market country ETF. The columns indicate the percentage by which each country is above or below its key moving averages, starting with the 10-day moving average and progressing up to the 200-day moving average.
The Takeaway: The improvement seen over the past few weeks is not just limited to the US. The percentage of global markets moving back above key short-term averages has been increasing throughout 2025, with the leadership primarily coming from the 22 developed markets. While these shorter-term trends have been strengthening beneath the surface, the shift at the index level has only recently begun.
These kinds of improvements in market breadth could establish a strong foundation for a sustained global rally. However, for me to believe that this recent run-up has lasting potential, I need to see the leadership...
When it comes to inflation expectations, the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities vs the US Treasury Bonds ratio is one of the best ways to measure it.
When investors anticipate rising prices for goods, they hedge by favoring TIPS over traditional bonds.
The TIP/IEF ratio is ripping to its highest level in almost three years.
It’s no coincidence that the Bloomberg Commodity Index $DJP looks just like it.
If we’re heading into another inflationary period, then commodities, energy, metals-related equities, natural resources, and international markets should be top of mind.
There are many ways to take advantage of this trend, and options are one of them.
We’ve been on it through Breakout Multiplier for a while now. Steve’s all over this move, and so am I.
All the Euro STOXX Indexes are at new all-time highs.
The DAX is at new all-time highs.
Germany is about to break out of a massive base in USD terms.
Spain and Greece are completing multi-decade bases.
European equities are on absolute fire right now and participation is broad.
Meanwhile, they are still talking about the recession in the Eurozone.
It’s a perfect setup. In fact, the bull thesis here is a lot like China in a sense that many of these countries check all three boxes… sentiment, technicals, and valuation.
Some of these European countries like Poland and Austria are even cheaper than China with CAPE ratios around 10x.
They also come with plenty of beta. For example, the MSCI Poland ETF EPOL is already up about 150% off its 2022 cycle low.
This kind of action says a lot about risk appetite, too. This is true for some areas of Europe more than others.