What's driving stock prices?

Remember, over the short- to intermediate-term, stock prices don't move based on the fundamentals. They move up and down based on positioning, or in many cases, a lack of positioning.

When no one wanted Tech and mega-cap growth at the end of 2022, that was when Tech and mega-cap growth really got going.

Before that, when everyone wanted high growth Tech, Cathy Wood was the next Warren Buffett, and that's when Tech stopped working for a while - and is still not working in many of cases.

That's sentiment driving those things.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Aside from gold’s new all-time highs, commodities look rough.

Natty gas is falling below two bucks. Copper is retesting four. And corn is rolling to its lowest level since 2020.

But of all the vulnerable commodities contracts, only one area stands out as a viable short: cattle.

Feeder cattle futures closed below 250 this afternoon, triggering a sell signal:

Notice the 14-day RSI led price by registering a new multi-month low ahead of today’s breakdown. The waning momentum speaks to weakening demand and the possibility of a swift move lower.  

As highlighted in June, our downside targets are now 234 and 175.

Live cattle futures also...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US Treasuries are sticking a bullish reversal – an admirable feat following an unforgettable selloff.

If you aren’t buying bonds yet, it’s time to reconsider.

Here's the US T-Bond ETF $TLT trading above a rising 200-day moving average as it violates a multi-year downtrend line:

These are the early signs of a trend reversal.

Now, bond bulls want to witness the 14-week RSI post fresh multi-year highs. (We may see such a print following today’s action.)

Heading into the close, the 30-year T-bond is registering its largest one-week rate of change since spring 2020. And on a more tactical time frame, the 14-day RSI is reaching overbought conditions. 

Both data points suggest an initiation thrust, supporting further upside for US Treasuries – a move that could last weeks or even months.

But who knows how long this bond will rally? I’m guessing months, maybe quarters, but not years.

...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Aside from Gold’s new all-time highs, commodities look rough.

Natty gas is falling below two bucks. Copper is retesting four. And Corn is rolling to its lowest level since 2020.

But of all the vulnerable commodities contracts, only one area stands out as a viable short: cattle.

Volatility is blowing out for the second day in a row.

I'll cut to the chase. This is a good time to sell defined-risk, delta-neutral options credit spreads.

We're going to do it again today.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new position today.
2. Adjustment to XME position.
3. Exited XRT at profit target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Welcome to the Hot Corner Insider Weekly Report!

As you know, we spend a lot of time tracking insider activity to come up with this universe.

But that’s only half the battle!

Once we identify the names insiders are targeting, we overlay our expert technical analysis to see if the market agrees with their actions.

While we track some of the most powerful and well-informed market participants… we aren’t just going to follow them blindly into their trades.

We want to see that the insider activity is confirmed by the trend before we get involved. 

When we can check both boxes, we identify asymmetric risk/reward setups and then jump in and ride these trends higher alongside the smart money.

You can...

Rocket Companies $RKT is in the process of completing a primary trend reversal as it breaks out to its highest level since 2021 on the heels of an earnings beat.

The stock holds a 13.6% short interest and a 6x days-to-cover ratio, which could spark a major squeeze.

As long as we’re above 15, we want to be long RKT.

With the primary trend just now turning higher with the completion of a textbook rounding bottom formation, we like this one over longer time frames too.

Here’s the chart, showing volatility surging higher as it comes off record low levels:

The market hates it when bonds are making outsized moves.

It's less about when rates are rising or when rates are falling.

The bigger point here is that when interest rates are making very aggressive directional moves, that's what brings the volatility to the stock market.

And that's exactly what's happening:

The most significant insider buy on today’s list comes via a Form 4 filing by Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V.

The Mexico-based investment company reported purchases totaling $2.8 million in Talos Energy Inc $TALO.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from August 1, 2024:

Director John T Baldwin revealed the acquisition of 8,000 shares of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc $CLF.

Last but not least, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi bought 10,000 shares of NVIDIA Corporation $NVDA.

NVDA has been stair-stepping higher and consolidating constructively along the way since a huge base-breakout in May 2023. 

For the last month and a half, the AI leader has been undergoing a corrective wave.

NVDA has fallen more than 20% off its highs, reaching a key extension level from above. We’re looking at this as a potential support zone.

We've been here before.

It's been 24 years since we've been here. 

But this is familiar territory

We saw historic underperformance from Technology stocks immediately after the sector reached the same levels it just reached last month.

Should we expect the same? In other words, should Tech keep underperforming, paving the way for other sectors like Financials, Industrials, Energy and Healthcare to outperform for a while?

Is that why the equally-weighted S&P500 just closed the month at new all-time highs? Because the largest weighting of the Market-cap weighted version is struggling to make any progress?

Here's Technology relative to the S&P500 getting back to those former highs from early 2000:

This is the video recording of our August 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

Here's this week's crypto roundup. It's an opportunity for us to take a step back, set aside the distractions, and delve into the key charts shaping the crypto complex.

VIX is near its highest level of the year and this is being reflected in options premiums nearly across the board.

It's also earnings season, so we want to be careful not to get caught in any potential earnings-driven landmines.

With this in mind, I've got a big cap name that has already reported earnings, is trading in a range, and is still exhibiting elevated options premiums -- the perfect recipe for a delta neutral options trade.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Remember when anything priced in yen was trending higher?

It wasn’t too long ago that if you were looking for an uptrend, all you had to do was throw the yen in the denominator, and voila.

Just last month, the dollar hit a new 34-year high against the yen—levels not seen since the 1980s.

But the tables are turning in favor of the Japanese currency.  

While most central banks are either cutting interest rates or considering future rate cuts, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is hiking—a policy shift that puts a bid beneath the yen…

A couple of months ago, I highlighted buying yen futures above .6500.

Fast forward to today, and I’ve adjusted the entry-level to the former 2022 and 2023 lows at approximately .6625:

The shelf of...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new position today.
2. Adjustment to XLC position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!