It's fashionable in certain circles to talk about having a Canadian escape plan if shit gets too weird here in the United States.

I'm not one of those. Though I love Canada, having grown up across the border in Buffalo, NY.

There were many times in my younger days, while spending a day across the border, where I'd find myself short on cash and I'd have to hit an ATM to get some loonies! And most often, those ATMs were run by CIBC.

So maybe I should attempt to earn back some of those ATM fees (plus interest!).

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XRT.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

Today’s most significant insider transaction comes in a Form 4 filing by Block $SQ director Roelof Botha.

Botha reported a $25 million purchase of SQ shares.

Artisan Partners Limited Partnership filed a 13G for Smith Douglas Homes Corp $SDHC revealing an initial stake of 10.50%.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from August 8, 2024:

In another Form 4, the chief operating officer of MP Materials Corp $MP, Michael Stuart Rosenthal, revealed an acquisition of 30,000 shares.

There was also insider activity in O-I Glass $OI, AGCO Corporation $AGCO, and Byline Bancorp Inc $BY.

SQ has been working on a reversal basing pattern since 2022.

Accumulation patterns like this tend to take time, as the trend gradually shifts from down to sideways to higher.

While the bulls have work to do, we prefer to wait...

Bitcoin's back above all that broken support with a vengeance.

And what better time to do it when everyone's panicking and the futures market has been absolutely decimated.

As we walked through in this week's video, a great deal of the longs in the derivative markets have completely thrown in the towel.

They've given up, and they don't want anything to do with crypto anymore.

Now, the market is up and recovering rather nicely.

Seems like a hell of a bear trap to me...

Here's this week's crypto roundup. It's an opportunity for us to take a step back, set aside the distractions, and delve into the key charts shaping the crypto complex.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Let everyone grumble over the Japanese yen.

I get it. The yen was cast as the villain decades ago, and something or someone must take the blame for the VIX hitting 65 earlier this week.

While I prefer to point my finger at the preceding low-volatility environment, the November election, and potential rate cuts, the yen certainly played a part. 

But the real question isn’t who, what, when, where, or why. 

Instead, every investor wants to know…Was that it? 

Is the selloff over?

I think the worst is behind us. 

Here’s why…

Check out the USD/JPY chart with a 200-day simple moving average in bright blue (with the percentage above or below the long-term average in the lower pane):

In many ways the yen carry trade is a play on interest rates.

Notice the USD/JPY rocketed higher as the current hiking cycle began, rising with the widening spread between the Japan and US overnight rates. Powell’s war on inflation and Japan’s Yield Curve...

A surprising outcome for some of my defined-risk long delta trades this week is that my losses weren’t as pronounced as I would’ve expected given the vicious sell-off we’ve seen in many tech names.

Why?

One thing that isn’t often discussed about being long options premium when expressing bullish or bearish bets is that owning long options (calls or puts) also means we’re long volatility.

In situations like these where we saw VIX briefly with a 65-handle, the rapid rise in options premiums put a floor in many of the calls I had long positions in. So while many bullish positions in my portfolio were losing money, the losses were rather pedestrian relative to what others who were holding long stock or futures positions were likely experiencing.

It’s not a win, but it felt like one this week.

We discuss this and a whole lot more in this week’s Options Jam Session:

BlackRock just filed for a "Nasdaq Top 30" Stocks" ETF.

That's the top

This is the company that runs the iShares ETFs.

NOW is when they want to launch a vehicle for investors to buy ONLY the top 30 Nasdaq stocks?

Now?

Where was this 10 years ago?

To me, this type of sentiment is just further evidence that Technology has peaked as a percentage of total market cap in the stock market.

This sort of top-heavy hype is confirming what price is already suggesting.

Look at Technology hitting new 10-month lows today relative to the S&P500:

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to XHB position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

The most significant insider buy on today’s list comes via a Form 4 filing by Blue Star Exploration Corp, which purchased $21 million worth of Comstock Resources $CRK.

Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. continues to buy shares of PBF Energy Inc $PBF and Talos Energy Inc $TALO.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from August 7, 2024:

The CEOs of Intel Corporation $INTC and Vimeo Inc $VMEO both filed Form 4s revealing purchases of their own stock.

Impactive Capital filed a 13D for Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation $VAC revealing an increase in ownership from 7.42% to 8.60%.

Director Pauline Richards bought 2,351 shares in Apollo Global Management $APO.

APO has entered a corrective phase, falling almost 25% off its highs in the last few weeks.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

The stock market likely has a couple of aftershocks left in it. But if the worst is over, I have to believe this is a great opportunity to buy the dip in some names that will be beneficiaries of the AI boom.

And there are few bigger and well-positioned names than Microsoft.

This market environment still demands that we define our risks and we're going to leverage elevated volatility in a way you might not expect to express our bet.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to IBB position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!