If you're like me and you have a bullish long-term bias towards Bitcoin and other Crypto assets, then you're constantly looking for opportunities to get exposure.
But with equities in the middle of a bull market, we also don't want to be in something that isn't moving.
This is the time to make money. So we want to make sure we're in the things that can make us money NOW, not "one day hopefully in the future..."
Take a look at the price of Bitcoin still working on completing this multi-year base.
The question we're asking ourselves today is a big one.
Is the US Dollar breaking down from a multi-year consolidation?
With the dollar rangebound all year, we haven’t experienced a trending currency market.
When the dollar is trending higher or lower, we have a good idea of the impact it is likely to have on other markets.
However, when it is trendless, the dollar is neither a headwind nor a tailwind for risk assets.
We think that could be changing.
Here's a weekly line chart showing the U.S. Dollar Index making new year-to-date lows:
As you can see, the US dollar bears have taken control and resolved this multi-year consolidation to the downside.
Here's another way to look at it.
The index is trading at the lower bounds of a well-tested range. Notice the flat 200-day moving average, illustrating the sideways nature of the primary trend.
This morning, the team was discussing a notable Board of Directors insider making a sizeable $5 million purchase of stock.
While an insider's buy isn't necessarily grounds for me to get interested in getting involved, it did catch our attention and after looking at the chart and the sector, it looks like a trade we'd like to get into--carefully.
SoundHound AI $SOUN is working its way up the right-hand side of a massive rounding bottom formation.
This pattern appeared to resolve higher with authority in Q1 as SOUN rallied roughly 500% in a little over a month.
However, it has spent the last 6 months coiling in a wide-ranged symmetrical triangle pattern, right around the base breakout zone.
Price is currently sitting in a roughly 50% drawdown from the March highs, but this $5 level is a big one. It not only coincides with a critical polarity zone at the Q1 and Q2 highs from last year, but it is also where the AVWAP from the IPO comes into play.
The most significant insider buy on today’s list comes via a Form 4 filing by Sarepta Therapeutics Inc $SRPT director Michael Andrew Chambers.
Chambers revealed a purchase of SRPT shares with a total value of $4.9 million.
Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from August 21, 2024:
In another Form 4, director Mark A. Alexander reported the acquisition of 2,000 shares of W. P. Carey Inc $WPC, equivalent to $114,059.
Last but not least, Rep. Kathy Manning of North Carolina filed a Periodic Transaction Report declaring purchases in Garmin Ltd $GRMN and Microsoft Corporation $MSFT.
GRMN has been carving out a base since 2021. Price is pressing against the range's upper bounds as buyers absorb all the overhead supply at this resistance zone:
The line in the sand lies at the 179 level. A breakout above that zone could push prices to a fresh leg to the upside.
There's nothing to provide updates on, nor any new trade opportunities I have seen.
I am reiterating the message earlier in the week.
I think this is a good place to add long-term exposure, but do not believe it to be good for short-term trading opportunities; more patience is needed here.
Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended August 16, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual...