In today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discuss the signal (if any) being sent from $VIX with a 13 handle, and we cautioned viewers to not just automatically think that a low VIX means the next spike is imminent.

Then, we got into the opportunity that looks most appealing over the next 6-12 months. 

You can watch the full episode here and get the trade details below: 

Apple has been in a year-long range (see video) that appears to have been decisively broken. 

Here's a zoomed-in one-year chart showing the current breakout about the 234-235 range:

While it may feel like a bit of a chase here, I've got a plan to get us positioned small now, with the potential to get systematically larger into a pull back.

If we don't get the full position on, then at least we'll have a small winning position on that took no heat. In other words, a great risk-adjusted return!

Here's the Play:

I like buying $AAPL December 2025 300-strike calls for approximately $7.50. With options volatility relatively cheap in this name, these calls...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in ITB.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Today's standout insider transaction is a Form 4 filing from Carlos Slim's Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A., which added another 604,000 shares of PBF Energy Inc $PBF to its position.

Meanwhile, the chief operating officer of Prospect Capital Corporation $PSEC stepped up with a $1 million buy, following the CEO’s notable purchase in the last two weeks.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from December 2, 2024:

Newmont Corp $NEM director Harry M. Conger IV recently picked up 9,498 shares of the company’s common stock.

It's always good to see heavyweights in the gold mining space get the attention of excecutives.

Last but not least, Rep. Jonathan Jackson of Illinois...

Today's number is... 12

We have entered December, the 12th month of the year, which happens to be my favorite month! It's summer here in Australia, meaning the days are warm and long. This gives me plenty of time to play golf in the afternoon… and let's not forget that Santa comes to town!

More importantly, stocks tend to perform well in December.

Here’s the chart:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what this chart shows:

• This blue line represents the average return for December since 1950 for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: Yesterday, I shared a note about...

Participation continues to expand across the board as more sectors and industries break out to new cycle highs.

The SPDR S&P Retail ETF $XRT is the latest example of this theme.

Here’s a look at XRT completing a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal.

After spending nearly three years in the base-building process, buyers are finally taking control and kicking off a new uptrend.

This is the same bullish pattern we’ve seen so many times in this bull market. We’ve watched these formations take shape and resolve higher one after the next over the past few years. We don’t expect the retail index will be any different from those that came before it. 

The path of least resistance is now higher for XRT.

Retail stocks deserve a spot on our radar, and it’s time to identify the best opportunities in this space.

Alfonso

When we look back and discuss the bull market that began in 2023, what will we say?

I think we will talk about the artificial intelligence revolution and all the technology stocks that benefited most from it.

Maybe we will say this is when Nvidia changed the world and paved the way for so many new innovations and efficiencies.

I think there’s a good chance we’ll be talking about some other companies we haven't even heard of yet.

I don’t know how this story will end, but I do know it will be all about AI.

That should be clear to everyone by now.

And while I may not be the most tech savvy guy, I know the rise of AI has everything to do with advanced computer chips made by Nvidia and others.

As they say, you can’t have a party without the chips.

And the chips have really fueled the current bull market party. SMH rallied more than 3x in about a year and a half, kicking off the new bull market. 

It is still one of the top-performing industry groups this cycle, despite going sideways for the last six months.

...

Since gold futures hit our second target, the entire complex has undergone a corrective wave. 

While the market hasn't given us the all-clear signal yet, the correction seems closer to the end than the beginning.

Demand for gold worldwide continues to increase, and our intermarket analysis suggests the party is just starting for gold bugs across the galaxy. 

Moreover, our COT sentiment indicator is flashing a buy signal:

The US Dollar Index $DXY is sitting at the top end of the range it’s been stuck in for the past two years, and the stage is set for a move lower. 

This has significant implications for a variety of asset classes, including precious metals, equities, and Bitcoin, all of which stand to benefit from a weaker dollar environment.

Back in October, Steve highlighted the divergence in the dollar and the potential for a bounce higher. 

In a matter of days, the dollar ripped in a nearly vertical line toward the upper bounds of its range.

Today, the picture is very different than it was back in October. 

With a tough seasonal period setting in, along with resistance overhead and a bearish momentum divergence, our tactical outlook for the dollar is lower from here.

A few weeks ago, the dollar briefly broke out of its...

The market's mood is for higher prices. It's a Bull Market.

Thus, it's no surprise that a data company providing important information to investors is riding the wave higher.

It pays to buy dips in strong stocks during bull markets, and today, one such opportunity is presenting itself.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XME.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Closed SMH at profit target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Join us this morning and every weekday LIVE at 8:30AM ET for the Best Morning Show in Finance.

I know there were some shows out there before we got here. And there are certainly folks out there trying to create new morning shows.

Good luck!

Their friends aren't as smart as our friends. Their friends aren't as cool as ours.

And their friends aren't willing to open up and share their thoughts with the world as regularly as our friends.

I know we're blessed. Not everyone can have a crew like ours. And that's why I introduce them to you every single weekday. It's the least I can do.

...

Today’s insider transactions feature a couple of power moves worth noting.

First up, Sardar Biglari, the founder, chairman, and CEO of Biglari Holdings Inc $BH, reported a significant insider buy of $1 million via a Form 4 filing. 

Biglari is known for his hands-on leadership and calculated investments, making this a bold vote of confidence in his company’s outlook.

Biglari now owns about $26.5 million worth of class A common stock.

Meanwhile, over at retail giant Walmart Inc $WMT, director Robert Edward Moritz Jr. scooped up 5,446 shares worth nearly $500,000.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from November 29, 2024:

Over at OPKO Health $OPK, the chairman and CEO doubled down with a personal purchase of $305,376. Dr. Phillip Frost is a serial inside buyer, so we won’t make much of this specific purchase.

Last but not least, director...

Today's number is... 535

“It’s a bull market, you know.” - @OptionsSean

This bull market has been ongoing for 535 trading days to date.

Here is a bar chart displaying all S&P 500 bull markets since 1950:

(right-click and open image in new tab to zoom in)

Let's break down what this chart shows:

• The blue bars represent the percentage change of each bull market. 
• The red dots represent the total number of trading days for each bull market. 
• The blue horizontal dashed line indicates the average percentage...