Stock prices don't move based on "fundamentals".

Prices move based on positioning.

When investors are primarily on one side of a market, the pendulum swings to the other extreme.

One of my heroes John Roque said it best, "We're not in a reversion TO the mean business, we're in a reversion BEYOND the mean business".

In other words, from extremes in positioning, the market doesn't just go back to the average positioning. It tends to continue towards the other extreme.

This is the situation we currently find ourselves in as investors.

The Bitcoin halving has come and gone, and my perspective on it remains unchanged: it was a non-event. Contrary to expectations based on previous cycles, this halving had little impact on Bitcoin's trajectory, which appears more influenced by broader market liquidity conditions. While some may argue for its significance, any effect on the market seems to stem mainly from sentiment rather than fundamental changes in supply or demand.

One sentiment dynamic worth noting is the classic pattern of "buying the rumor, selling the news." However, in the case of the halving, we've witnessed a reversal of this trend. Investors preemptively adjusted their positions leading up to the event, particularly in Bitcoin mining stocks, anticipating the halving's impact on revenues. Surprisingly, instead of selling off after the halving, there has been a notable increase in buying activity, reflecting a shift in sentiment.

This behavior aligns with a fundamental aspect of human psychology: the aversion to uncertainty. Similarly, investors prefer to act when outcomes seem more predictable, hence the recent surge in buying activity post-halving.

Looking specifically at Bitcoin...

This is one of the biggest questions we want to ask ourselves right now.

How many ounces of Silver does it take to buy just 1oz of Gold?

The answer is that it's currently too many.

Here is the Ratio between Gold and Silver, overlaid with a 200-week moving average just to smooth out the data better.

These cookies were made by a member of my Trader’s Meetup group. She brought them to our gathering last night and made plenty to share with everyone.

Where else can one bring cookies with Japanese candlesticks and receive a rousing ovation from all in attendance?

This is how you know you’re with your people.

Eventually, our spouses get tired of hearing about our “failed breakouts” and “doji reversals.” Our non-trading friends look sideways at us for...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Atlas Venture Opportunity Fund.

The hedge fund reported the acquisition of 17,857 shares of Korro Bio Inc $KRRO, equivalent to roughly $1 million.

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled XLB position into June.
3. Exited GLD campaign.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Cormorant Asset Management LP.

The hedge fund reported a purchase of $10.4 million in EyePoint Pharmaceuticals Inc $EYPT.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order to...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors are dropping gold and silver like they’re hot.

But don’t let the sellers push you toward the exit.

It might look ugly, but a corrective period following gold’s vertical rally to our initial target sounds about right.

Plus, three of our current long positions – Harmony $HMY, Wheaton $WPM, and Kinross $KGC – posted new 52-week highs Thursday. 

I expect the new highs list to expand as gold and silver work through overhead supply in the coming months.

Instead of sweating today’s selling pressure, I’m placing orders to buy the following two mining stocks on a breakout…

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Cormorant Asset Management LP.

The hedge fund reported a purchase of $10.4 million in EyePoint Pharmaceuticals Inc $EYPT.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors are dropping Gold and Silver like they’re hot.

But don’t let the sellers push you toward the exit.

It might look ugly, but a corrective period following Gold’s vertical rally to our initial target sounds about right. Plus, three of our current long positions – Harmony $HMY, Wheaton $WPM, and Kinross $KGC – posted new 52-week highs Thursday. 

I expect the new highs list to expand as Gold and Silver work through overhead supply in the coming months.

Instead of sweating today’s selling pressure, I’m placing orders to buy the following two mining stocks on a breakout…

First up, Silvercorp Metals $SVM:

SVM is challenging last year’s high after violating a multi-year downtrend line. Trend line violations such as this indicate the beginnings of a bullish price reversal, while base breakouts signal an entry point.

A decisive close above 4.20 completes a double-bottom pattern, triggering an entry order with an initial target of 6.50 and a secondary objective of 16.50.

Next, we have a name JC highlighted last week during the monthly strategy session. Fortuna Silver...

I came into today's Flow Show not having much of an appetite for any aggressively bullish bets. But by the show's end, I'm putting on a straight gamble! How the hell did that happen? Watch the video above to find out.

The chart and setup that piqued my interest is this one in Riot Platforms $RIOT:

Now that the Bitcoin "halving" is out of the way, will the prior RIOT/Bitcoin correlation that was strong until the last three-ish months reassert itself?

And if it does, will $RIOT catch up to Bitcoin? Or will Bitcoin catch down to $RIOT?

Judging by the basing action we've witnessed in Bitcoin in recent weeks, I think the next big move is higher. And if $RIOT "catches up"? It could be a monster winner in a hurry.

Bonus kicker: Riot Platforms announces earnings on May 8th. That could be the big push we need.

Here's the Play:

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled ARKK position into June.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Farhad A. Nanji, founder of MFN Partners Management LP.

Nanji reported an additional purchase of $24 million in RXO Inc $RXO.

As we've discussed here plenty, this year is very different than last year.

Remember in 2023 when breakouts would stick and prices of stocks and ETFs would keep heading higher?

That's not happening these days.

It's actually been the opposite.

The bigger question for me is whether these new trends are here to stay, or if at some point the stock market reverts to those longer underlying uptrends that got us here.

Another question I have is which mining companies are going to lead their groups as metals continue to make new highs.

Here's a good way to view it. This is Gold breaking out of a decade+ long base to new all-time highs, resuming its secular uptrend from the 2000s.

Have you counted how many stocks and sectors put in failed breakouts?

Market breadth has been deteriorating so fast that most of the "breakouts" that everyone was so excited about last quarter are all failing one by one.

It's pretty nasty out there.

That's what happens when you get aggressive and buy stocks while breadth is deteriorating in your face.

I've seen this too many times to get fooled again.

You're seeing a lot of first timers out there who haven't learned this yet.

One of the better examples is in the Equally-weighted S&P500. Look at this nasty failed breakout.

Crypto markets are undergoing a period of consolidation. Following last week's selloff, buying during weekend hours helped to push Bitcoin and Ethereum higher.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Farhad A. Nanji, founder of MFN Partners Management LP.

Nanji reported an additional purchase of $24 million in RXO Inc $RXO.